干旱地区农业研究2025，Vol.43Issue(3)：210-219,232,11.DOI:10.7606/j.issn.1000-7601.2025.03.22
近60年黄淮海夏玉米光温水资源适宜度及灾害风险演变特征
Evolution of light,temperature,and water resource suitability and disaster risks for summer maize in the Huang-Huai-Hai region over the past 60 years
摘要
Abstract
To explore the impacts of climate change on climate suitability and the risk of agrometeorological disasters for summer maize,we established a climate suitability index model and a risk index model based on daily meteorological data from 84 meteorological stations and summer maize growth period observations from 56 agricultur-al meteorological stations in the Huang-Huai-Hai region from 1961 to 2020.The results showed that over the past 60 years,during the entire growth period of summer maize in the Huang-Huai-Hai region,heat resources exhibited a significant increasing trend,while precipitation and light resources showed a fluctuating decline.From 1961 to 2020,the climate suitability of summer maize in the region generally increased throughout most of the growth period but showed a slight decline in the later stages.Notably,a continuous increase was observed over a 13-year period from 1987 to 2000,demonstrating distinct phase characteristics.The temperature suitability throughout the entire growth period exhibited a generally stable upward trend with fluctuations,while water and light suitability showed an initial increase,remained stable in the middle stages,and declined in the later stages from 1961 to 2020.The interannual trends of light,temperature,water,and overall climate suitability varied across different growth stages,with distinct patterns of suitability and disaster risk.The 1970s experienced the worst temperature suitability,with the highest risk of low-temperature disasters,whereas the 2010s recorded the best temperature suitability at 83.7.Water suitability was at its lowest in the 1960s and 2010s but significantly improved in the 1980s and 2000s.Across all decades,climate suitability was the poorest in the 1960s at 71.8 and reached its highest at 75.7 in the 1990s,which also had the lowest risk of agrometeorological disasters.Among different growth stages,the risk of agrometeo-rological disasters was highest at the mature stage,followed by the seedling stage,and lowest at the tasseling and silking stages,which had the best climate suitability throughout the entire growth period.关键词
夏玉米/气候适宜度/农业气象灾害指数/黄淮海地区Key words
summer maize/climate suitability/agrometeorological disaster index/Huang-Huai-Hai region分类
农业科技引用本文复制引用
赵秀兰,吕厚荃..近60年黄淮海夏玉米光温水资源适宜度及灾害风险演变特征[J].干旱地区农业研究,2025,43(3):210-219,232,11.基金项目
国家气象中心2024年度气象高质量发展专项(QXGZL2024) （QXGZL2024）
科技部公益性气象行业专项(GYHY201106020) （GYHY201106020）
