干旱地区农业研究2025，Vol.43Issue(3)：260-269,10.DOI:10.7606/j.issn.1000-7601.2025.03.26
四种常见气象干旱指数在新疆的适宜性评估
Suitability assessment of four common meteorological drought indices in Xinjiang
摘要
Abstract
Four commonly used meteorological drought indices(SPI,SPEI,PDSI,and SC-PDSI)were ap-plied to Xinjiang from 2001 to 2022 to analyze their correlation with soil moisture,river runoff,and terrestrial water storage,as well as their responsiveness to historically significant drought periods.Additionally,the Mann-Kendall mutation test and trend analysis were employed to assess the spatial and temporal variations of the four indices and evaluate their suitability for drought monitoring in Xinjiang.The results showed that:(1)The PDSI index showed the strongest correlation with soil moisture and river runoff,and the correlation with the change of terrestrial water storage was second only to SC-PDSI.In the reflection of typical drought events,the PDSI index performed best.(2)Overall,Xinjiang was in a wet state.Over the time series,all four drought indices indicate a slight drying trend during the study period(with trend values around-0.01),and the timing and frequency of dry and wet mu-tation points varied.(3)On the whole,in terms of spatial distribution,the degree of drought in northern,central and south-central Xinjiang was higher than that in western and eastern parts of Xinjiang.Compared with the PDSI,the SC-PDSI showed a wider range of trend rate changes(from-0.3054 to 0.3237)than the other three drought indices.Its representation of dry and wet conditions was overly exaggerated,whereas the SPI tended to understate these changes.The SPEI showed a similar pattern to the PDSI.Overall,the PDSI proved to be more suitable for as-sessing drought conditions in Xinjiang than the other three indices.关键词
气象干旱指数/适用性分析/土壤湿度/河川径流量/陆地水储量/新疆地区Key words
meteorological drought index/applicability analysis/soil moisture/river runoff/terrestrial water storage/Xinjiang region分类
农业科技引用本文复制引用
陈珍,蔡朝朝,马楠,戴硕,王震鲁..四种常见气象干旱指数在新疆的适宜性评估[J].干旱地区农业研究,2025,43(3):260-269,10.基金项目
新疆维吾尔自治区自然科学基金项目(2022D01A81) （2022D01A81）
