干旱地区农业研究2025，Vol.43Issue(3)：278-286,9.DOI:10.7606/j.issn.1000-7601.2025.03.28
基于Biomod2组合模型对气候变化下青藏高原密花香薷适生区的预测
Predicting suitable habitats for Elsholtzia densa on the Qinghai-Xizang(Tibetan)Plateau under climate change using the Biomod2 model
摘要
Abstract
Elsholtzia densa is one of the major malignant weeds in agricultural fields on the Qinghai-Xizang(Tibetan)Plateau,and in order to explore its potential threat to crops and potential distribution areas under future climate change scenarios,this study used 10 algorithms provided by the Biomod2 platform combined into a single model to evaluate and analyze environmental variables affecting Elsholtzia densa's fitness for distribution,and to predict the changes in suitable areas and center-of-mass transfer in the context of current and future climate change.The results showed that the main environmental factor affecting the distribution of Elsholtzia densa was the maximum temperature of the warmest month,and that it was distributed in Qinghai,Gansu,Sichuan,Yunnan,and Qinghai-Xizang(Tibetan)under the current climatic conditions,with a total area of 1.044×106 km2,which accounted for 40.94%of the total area of the Qinghai-Xizang(Tibetan)Plateau.Predictions based on the context of climate change indicate that Elsholtzia densa has significantly expanded its habitat on the Qinghai-Xizang(Tibetan)Plat-eau,demonstrating a greater ability to survive and reproduce at higher altitudes.Its center of mass is expected to shift northwestward.The invasion of Elsholtzia densa poses a serious threat to crop yield and quality,necessitating effective control measures.Strengthened monitoring of its occurrence and spread,along with the development of effi-cient prevention and management strategies,is essential for mitigating its impact.关键词
密花香薷/适生区/气候变化/Biomod2 组合模型/青藏高原Key words
Elsholtzia densa/suitable area/climate change/biomod2 combinatorial modeling/Qinghai-Xizang(Tibetan)Plateau分类
农业科技引用本文复制引用
刘泽渊,魏有海,侯璐,郭良芝,程亮,李跃,杨振扬,付贞桢..基于Biomod2组合模型对气候变化下青藏高原密花香薷适生区的预测[J].干旱地区农业研究,2025,43(3):278-286,9.基金项目
项目基金:青海省科学技术厅重点研发与转化计划(2024-NK-111) （2024-NK-111）
国家科技部第二次青藏高原综合科学考察研究资助项目(2019QZKK0303) （2019QZKK0303）
