自然资源遥感2025，Vol.37Issue(2)：140-147,8.DOI:10.6046/zrzyyg.2023360
耦合Markov与FLUS模型的珠三角城市群土地利用多情景模拟预测
Multi-scenario simulation and prediction of land use in the Pearl River Delta urban agglomeration using the coupled Markov-FLUS model
摘要
Abstract
Land use demands vary under different development objectives.Scientifically and rationally regulating changes in land use are crucial to efficient land resource utilization and achieving ecological,developmental,and economic coordination in the Pearl River Delta urban agglomeration.Based on the land use data of the urban agglomeration of 1990,2000,2010,and 2020 and using the FLUS-Markov model,this study predicted the quantity and spatial changes in land use in the Pearl River Delta urban agglomeration by 2035 under three scenarios:natural development,ecological protection,and development priority.Furthermore,this study determined the differences in land use change under the three scenarios.Additionally,a simulation analysis of the land use in 2035 was conducted to facilitate the optimized land and space allocation under varying developmental objectives.The results indicate significant changes in the use of construction land in the Pearl River Delta urban agglomeration.From 1990 to 2020,the area of construction land,including urban land and infrastructure land increased by 4 945.25 km2,representing an increase of 2.8 times.The simulations and predictions under three land use scenarios reveal that the urban land area will trend upward by the end of 2034,with its expansion speed being restricted under the ecological protection scenario,while the ecological land,such as forest land,grassland,and water area,will maintain an increasing trend until 2035.From 1990 to 2020,the arable land area decreased by 3 759.5 km2.Under the three land use scenarios,the trend of arable land reduction will continuously decrease until 2035,with the decreasing trends slowing down from 2020 to 2035.Especially,under the development scenario,the area of construction land will continue to increase,the decreasing trend of the arable land area will be somewhat curbed,while the area of grassland and forest land will undergo a more serious decrease.Although dominant factors affecting arable land protection in the Pearl River Delta urban agglomeration vary across different development stages,the main factor is infrastructure construction such as rail transit roads.关键词
Markov模型/FLUS模型/土地利用变化/模拟预测Key words
Markov model/FLUS model/land use change/simulated prediction分类
信息技术与安全科学引用本文复制引用
柴新宇,吴献文,陈晓辉,王玉,赵星涛..耦合Markov与FLUS模型的珠三角城市群土地利用多情景模拟预测[J].自然资源遥感,2025,37(2):140-147,8.基金项目
广东省教育厅重点科研平台"智慧城市时空大数据与云计算产教融合创新中心"(编号:2020CJPT023,2023GCZX010),广东省普通高校重点领域项目(编号:2024ZDZX3112)共同资助. （编号:2020CJPT023,2023GCZX010）
