气象研究与应用2025，Vol.46Issue(1)：9-18,10.DOI:10.19849/j.cnki.CN45-1356/P.2025.1.02
基于时间滞后集合的广西对流尺度模式小时降水预报订正效果检验
Evaluation of correction effectiveness on hourly precipitation forecasts in Guangxi Convective-Scale Model using time-lag ensemble method
摘要
Abstract
In order to improve the precipitation forecasting capability of the convective-scale numerical weather prediction model system in Guangxi,the study adopted time-lag ensemble forecasting and frequency matching correction methods to correct the hourly precipitation forecast data with an interval of 12 minutes.The study then validated the ensemble-corrected 12-minute precipitation forecasts for Guangxi from January to December 2023 using minute-by-minute observed precipitation data.Meanwhile,an application analysis was carried out in a typhoon heavy precipitation event in Guangxi.The results indicated that:(1)both the time-lag ensemble-corrected precipitation forecast and the latest precipitation forecast of the model exhibited over-forecasting of precipitation,with the former overpredicting small-scale precipitation forecasts and being relatively conservative in large-scale precipitation forecasts compared to the latter.(2)The time-lag ensemble-corrected precipitation forecast had a lower TS score for rain/no-rain forecasts than the model,but better TS scores for large-scale precipitation than the model.(3)The time-lag ensemble correction method effectively improved the model's forecasts for heavy precipitation during the heavy precipitation event,particularly during events with extensive heavy precipitation.(4)The time-lag ensemble revision method showed positive revision techniques for precipitation forecasts of magnitudes above 7 mm,effectively reducing the rate of false alarms and biases and improving the forecast accuracy,but there were excessive revisions for precipitation forecasts of small magnitudes.Overall,the time-lag ensemble revision method has certain advantages in large-scale precipitation forecasting and can provide objective technical support for hourly precipitation forecasting in Guangxi,but it still needs to be further optimized in order to solve the problems of over-forecasting of small-scale precipitation and being conservative in large-scale precipitation.关键词
小时降水预报/对流尺度/时间滞后/集合预报/频率匹配订正Key words
hourly precipitation forecast/convective-scale/time-lag/ensemble forecast/frequency matching method分类
大气科学引用本文复制引用
黄增俊,张丁丁,梁生,曾小团,白龙..基于时间滞后集合的广西对流尺度模式小时降水预报订正效果检验[J].气象研究与应用,2025,46(1):9-18,10.基金项目
广西自然科学基金项目(2022GXNSFAA035482)、广西气象科研计划项目(桂气科2023ZL008) （2022GXNSFAA035482）
