气象研究与应用2025，Vol.46Issue(1)：97-101,5.DOI:10.19849/j.cnki.CN45-1356/P.2025.1.13
2024年6月17-18日南宁市大范围暴雨成因分析
Analysis of the cause of a widespread rainstorm in Nanning City on 17-18 June,2024
摘要
Abstract
Based on the conventional meteorological observations,the fifth-generation global climate reanalysis data(ERA5)of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts(ECMWF),and numerical model forecasting products of various numerical models such as the European Central Numerical Model(ECMWF)and the China Meteorological Administration Numerical Model(CMA),this study analyses the causes and numerical model forecasting effects of a widespread heavy rainstorm in Nanning City on 17-18 June,2024 and evaluates the weather system evolution characteristics and physical characteristics of this rainstorm.The results show that:(1)the stable atmospheric circulation background provides favourable atmospheric conditions for the perseverative rainstorm,and the systems of low-level shear lines,surface fronts and low-level jets provide dynamical support for the rainstorm process.(2)The profound water vapour conditions and sufficient atmospheric unstable energy provide favourable atmospheric environmental conditions for the occurrence of the rainstorm.(3)The numerical model has some bias in the prediction of the rainstorm fallout area and intensity.In particular,the forecast of the southward movement of surface fronts is insufficient,leading to the underreporting of widespread rainstorms in Nanning.The forecasting operation should be combined with the rainfall forecast of the mesoscale model,and special attention should be paid to the adjustment of the rainfall area and intensity by the approaching model in order to improve the accuracy of the forecast.关键词
大范围暴雨/成因分析/模式检验Key words
widespread rainstorms/causal analysis/model evaluation分类
天文与地球科学引用本文复制引用
潘杰丽,黄丹萍,龚月清,黄卓帆..2024年6月17-18日南宁市大范围暴雨成因分析[J].气象研究与应用,2025,46(1):97-101,5.基金项目
中国气象局复盘总结专项项目(FPZJ2024-098)、广西气象科研计划项目(桂气科2023M15) （FPZJ2024-098）
