气象研究与应用2025，Vol.46Issue(1)：122-129,8.DOI:10.19849/j.cnki.CN45-1356/P.2025.1.17
肇庆地区参考作物蒸散量变化特征及成因分析
Characteristics and causes of evapotranspiration change of reference crops in Zhaoqing District
摘要
Abstract
In order to investigate the spatiotemporal distribution characteristics of reference crop evapotranspiration(ET0)in Zhaoqing and its response to climate change,this study utilized daily meteorological data from six stations in Zhaoqing from 1972 to 2022.Regression analysis was employed to explore trends in regional meteorological factors,while the Peman-Monteith model was applied to calculate ET0 values.Sensitivity analysis and contribution rate assessment were also conducted to quantitatively characterize ET0 spatiotemporal evolution and identify dominant meteorological drivers.The results show that:(1)the overall interannual ET0 in Zhaoqing exhibited an overall upward trend[4.72 mm·(10a)-1]from 1972 to 2022,and ET0 increased in spring,autumn and winter except for the decrease of ET0 in summer.The station-specific annual ET0 ranged between 1 311.19～1 417.54 mm,showing a distinct"south-high and north-low"spatial gradient.(2)In the past 51 years,significant warming trends emerged in mean temperature,maximum temperature,and minimum temperature(P＜0.01),alongside notable decreases in relative humidity(P＜0.01),while sunshine duration remained statistically unchanged.(3)The primary drivers of ET0 increase stemmed from combined positive contributions from the decrease in relative humidity,the increasein air temperature and the increase in wind speed outweighed the negative impact of reduced sunshine duration.Relative humidity emerged as the dominant meteorological factor influencing ET0 variation.Therefore,the climate in Zhaoqing showed a trend of"warming and drying"and the increase in ET0 may lead to an increase in agricultural drought,which is necessary to pay more attention to farmland drought and improve the efficiency of farmland irrigation management and agricultural water resource allocation.关键词
参考作物蒸散量/气候影响分析/主导气象因子/肇庆地区Key words
reference crop evapotranspiration/climate impact analysis/dominant meteorological drivers/Zhaoqing分类
农业科技引用本文复制引用
刘迎霞,胡小妮,旷雅琼,陈彦希,黄天文,王迁..肇庆地区参考作物蒸散量变化特征及成因分析[J].气象研究与应用,2025,46(1):122-129,8.基金项目
广东省肇庆市气象局科技项目(202312)、广东省肇庆市科技创新指导类项目(241224100090670)、广东省气象局科学技术研究项目(GRMC2023M42) （202312）
