高原气象2025，Vol.44Issue(3)：643-656,14.DOI:10.7522/j.issn.1000-0534.2024.00093
基于GWR降尺度的哀牢山2000-2020年降水时空变化特征研究
The Spatiotemporal Variations Characteristics of Precipitation in the Ailao Mountain Area during 2000-2020 based on Geographical Weighted Regression Downscaling Method
摘要
Abstract
High-quality precipitation is an important precondition to conduct the study of ecohydrology and cli-mate change in mountain area.However,complicated terrain and scarce and uneven ground observation stations make the understanding of spatiotemporal variations characteristics of precipitation in the Ailao Mountain Area unclear.In this study,GWR(Geographical Weighted Regression)model is used to downscale GSMaP-Gauge precipitation data with 0.1° spatial resolution to 30 m.After validating the accuracy of downscaled precipitation data by using monthly meteorological stations data,the monthly precipitation dataset from 2000 to 2020 in the Ailao Mountain Area is developed.Based on this dataset,the long-term(2000-2020)spatiotemporal variations characteristics of precipitation at both annual and monthly scales in the study area are illustrated.The results showed that(1)the accuracy of downscaled GSMaP-Gauge precipitation by GWR model was reliable(R2=0.77,Bias=-0.01),with the significant improvement of spatial details.(2)Spatially,the annual precipitation amount increased from north to south,and it first increased and then decreased with the rising of elevation in the Ailao Mountain Area.Temporally,there was obvious dry and wet seasons in the study area from 2000 to 2020,with the precipitation amount from May to September accounting for 74.74%of the annual precipitation.And precipitation amount first increased and then decreased from February to December,with the maximum occurred in July.(3)From the aspect of spatiotemporal change,the annual average precipitation amount decreased from 2001 to 2020,only 24.19%area was at an increasing trend concentrated at the southeastern Ailao Mountain Ar-ea.As for different months,precipitation amount was significantly increased in January and significantly de-creased in May,while the change trends of precipitation in the other months were insignificant.This study has found that GWR downscaling method is valid to obtain high-resolution precipitation data,which is also an effec-tive pathway to clarify the spatiotemporal characteristics of precipitation,and to provide key and basic data for ecohydrological process study and regional water resources management in mountain area.关键词
地理加权回归/降水量/降尺度/时空变化/复杂山区Key words
geographical weighted regression/precipitation amount/downscaling/spatiotemporal change/complicated mountain area分类
天文与地球科学引用本文复制引用
汪红,严乔顺,赵祖军,陈大祥,张志明..基于GWR降尺度的哀牢山2000-2020年降水时空变化特征研究[J].高原气象,2025,44(3):643-656,14.基金项目
中国博士后科学基金第73批面上项目(2023M733012) （2023M733012）
2023年度国家资助博士后研究人员计划C档项目(GZC20232217) （GZC20232217）
