交通运输研究2025，Vol.11Issue(2)：43-53,11.DOI:10.16503/j.cnki.2095-9931.2025.02.004
中老铁路对云南省沿线地区经济发展的影响
Impact of China-Laos Railway on Economic Development of Regions along the Line in Yunnan Province:An Empirical Analysis Based on DID Model and Mediation Effects
摘要
Abstract
In order to explore the impact and mechanism of the China-Laos Railway on the economic development of regions along the line in Yunnan Province,based on the background of the Belt and Road and regional connectivity,the paper took major station regions along the China-Laos Railway in Yunnan Province as the research objects,constructed the weighted average travel time and accessibili-ty coefficient model to measure the changes in their traffic accessibility before and after the opening of the railway,and used the DID(Difference-in-Differences)model and mediation effect to analyze the panel data from 2017 to 2023 to empirically test the economic effects and transmission paths of the opening of the railway.The results show that:①the opening of the China-Laos Railway has increased the traffic accessibility of the regions along the line in Yunnan Province by 28.9％on average,of which Xishuangbanna and Mengla station regions have the largest improvement,with an increase of more than 35％;the standardized accessibility coefficient converges from 0.79～1.25 to 0.95～1.15,indi-cating a significant enhancement in regional transportation integration;②the effect of the railway opening on the economic growth rate of the regions along the line reaches 1.6％,which is mainly driv-en by fixed asset investment,but constrained by the lagging of public service supply improvement in urbanization;③the analysis of mediation effects finds that although the railway increases foreign trade dependence by 6.1％,its transmission effect on economic growth is limited,and the path of industrial structure upgrading is also not apparent.关键词
中老铁路/交通可达性/经济增长/双重差分模型/中介效应Key words
China-Laos Railway/traffic accessibility/economic growth/DID(Difference-in-Dif-ferences)Model/mediation effect分类
交通运输引用本文复制引用
黄珏烽,黄承锋,雷洋..中老铁路对云南省沿线地区经济发展的影响[J].交通运输研究,2025,11(2):43-53,11.基金项目
国家社会科学基金项目(23XGJ013) （23XGJ013）
