江西农业学报2025，Vol.37Issue(5)：84-92,9.DOI:10.19386/j.cnki.jxnyxb.2025.05.012
云南农业碳排放时空演变及预测分析
Spatiotemporal Evolution and Prediction of Agricultural Carbon Emissions in Yunnan Province
摘要
Abstract
The carbon emissions of four major agricultural carbon sources(agricultural material input,crop cultivation,rice field management and livestock breeding)in Yunnan Province from 2009 to 2022 were systematically calculated by carbon emission coefficient method.The dynamic evolution of agricultural carbon emissions was analyzed by kernel density analysis method,and the agricultural carbon emissions in Yunnan Province from 2023 to 2030 were predicted and analyzed.The results showed that:(1)The total agricultural carbon emissions in Yunnan Province can be divided into three different stages:rapid increase-rapid decrease-slow increase,and the peak carbon emissions reached 4406.77×104 tons in 2016.The agricultural carbon emissions of Qujing,Honghe and Wenshan have been in the forefront for many years,and the carbon emissions of Pu'er,Qujing and Baoshan increased by more than 20%.(2)Livestock farming is the main source of agricultural carbon emissions.The dynamic evolution of carbon emissions from livestock dominated,livestock dominant and balanced agriculture had the same trend of changes,moving first to the right and then to the left,and the differences between states(cities)were further increasing.(3)The projected trend suggests a steady decrease in carbon emissions.It was estimated that agricultural carbon emission will reach 3395.06×104 tons by 2030,with a decrease of 2.05%,with a decrease of over 10%in Nujiang,Diqing,Kunming and Yuxi.To promote green and sustainable development of agriculture,Yunnan Province should mainly focus on optimizing the management of livestock farming scale,adapting the carbon emission reduction strategy according to local conditions,and strengthening agricultural technology innovation and achievement promotion.关键词
农业碳排放/碳排放预测/核密度分析/云南省/地区差异Key words
Agricultural carbon emission/Carbon emission prediction/Kernel density analysis/Yunnan Province/Regional difference分类
农业科技引用本文复制引用
张晓娇,李春林,毛昭庆,张素芳,陈智,鄢文光..云南农业碳排放时空演变及预测分析[J].江西农业学报,2025,37(5):84-92,9.基金项目
云南省科技厅科技人才和平台计划—高层次科技人才及创新团队选拔专项(202105AC160088) （202105AC160088）
云南省云岭学者人才专项(YNWR-YLXZ-2019-013) （YNWR-YLXZ-2019-013）
云南省农业科学院农业经济与信息研究所所立项目"'双碳'目标下云南省农业碳排放特征及其影响因素分析"(SJJ202202). （SJJ202202）
