南水北调与水利科技（中英文）2025，Vol.23Issue(2)：209-219,11.DOI:10.13476/j.cnki.nsbdqk.2025.0028
基于GTWR模型的黄河下游地区生态用地时空演变及驱动力分析
Spatiotemporal evolution and driving force analysis of ecological land use in the lower Yellow River based on GTWR model
摘要
Abstract
With the rapid development of urbanization and industrialization,the degree of interference and damage to the ecological environment caused by human activities has also increased,which has greatly changed the spatial and temporal distribution pattern of ecological land,destroyed the natural ecosystem service function,and affected the sustainable development as well as ecological security.Hence,it is necessary to ensure a certain quantity and quality of ecological land for strengthening the ecological protection and coordinated urban development. This study analyzed the spatiotemporal pattern evolution characteristics of ecological land use in the lower Yellow River based on the land use cover data of four periods from the year 1990 to 2020.The ordinary least squares regression model and the spatiotemporal geographic weighted regression model were used to explore the driving factors and formation mechanism of ecological land use change. From 1990 to 2022,significant changes were observed in the areas of various land types in the lower Yellow River.The conversion of ecological land to non-ecological land increased from 2 715.05 km2 to 10 657.70 km2,while the construction land expanded rapidly,encroaching on a large amount of ecological land in the city.The non-ecological conversion of ecological land was mainly the conversion of cultivated land and grassland to construction land,besides,the internal conversion of ecological land was mainly between cultivated land,grassland and water.The spatial changes of ecological land use showed a trend of expansion from the center to the periphery,while some areas were scattered and distributed in points,and gradually connected into patches,forming a multi-center and networked radial spatial structure.From 1990 to 2000,the significant areas of ecological land conversion were mainly distributed in the northeast and west of the lower Yellow River,but after 2000,the spatial evolution of ecological land was mainly scattered around the urban built-up area in a sporadic manner and continued to expand to the periphery,and the new ecological land such as cultivated land and grassland was connected with the original fragmented land to form a continuous ecological network.The influencing factors such as population,economy,industrial structure and temperature on the evolution of ecological land at different stages showed spatial differentiation characteristics.Among them,the influence of factors such as the proportion of the tertiary industry and the annual average temperature is increasing with every passing year,while the other factors show fluctuations. As an important ecological barrier,the lower Yellow River played a key role in China's ecological security and social and economic development.Through the study of the evolution and driving factors of ecological land use pattern,the paper provides relevant decision-making reference for the protection of ecological land,improvement of ecological service value,the coordinated development of the region,and the optimization of the land pattern in the study area.In future research,the spatial differentiation of influencing factors can be used reasonably to put forward targeted pattern optimization strategies for guiding the coordinated development of urban construction and ecological protection.关键词
生态用地/时空演变/GTWR模型/黄河下游Key words
ecological land/spatialtemporal evolution/GTWR model/lower Yellow River分类
水利科学引用本文复制引用
刘荣增,谷苗苗..基于GTWR模型的黄河下游地区生态用地时空演变及驱动力分析[J].南水北调与水利科技（中英文）,2025,23(2):209-219,11.基金项目
国家社科基金项目(17BJL065) （17BJL065）
河南省哲学社会科学规划项目(2022BJJ018) （2022BJJ018）
中原千人计划基础研究领军人才项目(ZYQR201810122) （ZYQR201810122）
