南水北调与水利科技（中英文）2025，Vol.23Issue(2)：242-250,276,10.DOI:10.13476/j.cnki.nsbdqk.2025.0031
基于CMIP6的黄河流域三级水资源区未来气候变化预估
Future climate change prediction in the tertiary zone of the Yellow River basin based on CMIP6
摘要
Abstract
The intensification of global warming has a significant impact on the systematic governance and high-quality development of the Yellow River basin,particularly in light of the challenges posed by climate change. Seven climate models and four baseline scenarios under the NASA Earth Exchange Global Daily Precipitation Scale Prediction(NEX-GDDP-CMIP6)climate model data were used to assess the simulation capability of each climate model and ensemble model for each water resource tertiary zone of the Yellow River.This is based on ground-based meteorological station observations from 1956 to 2018.The temporal and spatial patterns of precipitation and temperature were predicted under the four SSP scenarios from 2021 to 2080. The results show that the climate model's simulation of temperature in the tertiary water resource zone of the Yellow River Basin was better as compared to the simulation of precipitation.The future climate change trend is characterized by the humidification and thermalization.With the enhancement of radiative forcing in the SSP scenario,the seasonal trends of precipitation and air temperature are obvious.The change of precipitation is the largest in winter and the smallest in summer,at the same time the change of air temperature mainly reaches the peak in summer,followed by the second one in winter.Overall,the performance shows that the high temperature is increased while the low temperature is decreased. The study provides an important reference for the assessment of future extreme climate change trends as well as ecological governance and regulation in the tertiary water resource zones of the Yellow River basin,suggesting that future climate change will significantly affect water resource management and ecological protection in the basin.关键词
CMIP6/气候变化/时间变化特征/空间变化特征/黄河三级水资源区Key words
CMIP6/climate change/temporal variation characteristics/spatial variation characteristics/Yellow River tertiary zone分类
水利科学引用本文复制引用
王佳琦,王坤,严登华,周祖昊,赵津..基于CMIP6的黄河流域三级水资源区未来气候变化预估[J].南水北调与水利科技（中英文）,2025,23(2):242-250,276,10.基金项目
国家自然科学基金项目(U2243601) （U2243601）
国家重点研发计划项目(2024YFF1306303 （）
2022YFC3201705) （）
水利部重大科技项目(SKR-2022056 （）
SKS-2022070) （）
中国工程院院地合作项目(2024-DFZD-24 （）
GS2022ZDI02) （）
