人口与经济Issue(3)：39-53,15.DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1000-4149.2025.03.004
中国老年人口非正式照护成本测算
Estimating the Cost of Informal Care for the Elderly in China
摘要
Abstract
Against the backdrop of accelerating population aging and increasing family caregiving pressure,informal care has become increasingly important in the long-term care system.However,our understanding of the economic value of informal care remains limited.This paper creatively employs a counterfactual approach to accurately estimate the economic costs of informal care in China.Using a counterfactual wage prediction model,we estimate the opportunity costs of informal care for disabled individuals.By combining cross-sectional data from CHARLS and CFPS surveys,we obtain the distribution of disabled individuals across different age groups and genders.We then integrate this with population structure data from China's Seventh National Census to estimate the total economic cost of informal care nationwide.The results show that in 2020,the opportunity cost of informal care in China reached 1857.06 billion yuan,accounting for 1.83%of that year's GDP,which is comparable to the average level in developed countries.Using health transition matrices,we forecast future informal care costs,revealing that these costs will continue to increase as the aging process deepens,with the care burden for disabled elderly women being particularly prominent.To compare the supply efficiency between formal and informal care,we also estimate the cost of market-based formal care,finding that the cost of market-based elderly care services is significantly lower than that of family-based informal care overall.Based on these findings,we recommend accelerating the establishment of a long-term care insurance system,providing economic subsidies and social security for informal caregivers,and encouraging the development of market-based formal care services to address the challenges of aging and optimize the allocation of social care resources.关键词
失能预测/非正式照护/反事实估计/长期护理保险Key words
disability prediction/informal care/counterfactual estimation/long-term care insurance分类
社会科学引用本文复制引用
李民,王震,倪晨旭..中国老年人口非正式照护成本测算[J].人口与经济,2025,(3):39-53,15.基金项目
国家社会科学基金重大项目"现代化经济体系的系统结构、测度指标与建设政策研究"(20ZDA043). （20ZDA043）
