人口与经济Issue(3)：54-68,15.DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1000-4149.2025.03.005
人口老龄化背景下城乡居民家庭消费的结构变迁与趋势预测
Structural Shifts and Trend of Household Consumption in Urban and Rural Residents amid Population Aging
摘要
Abstract
In the context of population aging,understanding the consumption patterns and their changing trends of urban and rural residents is a crucial foundation for promoting consumer upgrading and narrowing the gap between urban and rural consumption.Based on the consumption data from urban and rural households in 31 provinces(municipalities directly under the Central Government and autonomous regions)of China from 2000 to 2022,this study uses the quadratic almost ideal demand(QUAIDS)model to measure and analyze the expenditure elasticity(EE),price elasticity(PE),and aging population elasticity(AE)of demand for different consumption.Considering the future trends in population aging and the scale of consumption,we predict changes in the consumption structure of urban and rural residents in 2050.The results show as follows:1)The expenditure elasticity of food,clothing and medical care consumption of urban residents is always less than 1,and the consumption of clothing and culture,education and entertainment of rural residents is constantly increasing,transforming from necessities to luxury goods,and rural residents are more sensitive to price fluctuations in all kinds of consumption except food;2)The elasticity of demand for consumption of culture,education,entertainment and medical care of urban residents is positive,while the rural elderly population will increase the consumption of culture,education,entertainment,and equipment and daily necessities;3)In the future,the aging population and the rise in consumption scale will lead to an increase in the proportion of urban and rural residents'spending on housing,culture,education,entertainment and medical care in 2050,among which the change of urban residents'consumption structure is more obvious.Hence,we propose policy recommendations for improving consumption structure from three perspectives:the ability to consume,the willingness to consume,and the confidence to consume.关键词
老龄化/城乡居民/消费结构/需求弹性/QUAIDS模型Key words
aging/urban and rural residents/consumption structure/demand elasticities/QUAIDS model分类
社会科学引用本文复制引用
李绍亭,陈萱,朱雅玲,任彦军..人口老龄化背景下城乡居民家庭消费的结构变迁与趋势预测[J].人口与经济,2025,(3):54-68,15.基金项目
西北农林科技大学研究生科研创新项目"人口结构变动视角下食物消费环境效应评估及其优化策略研究"(JGYJSCXXM202402) （JGYJSCXXM202402）
清华大学中国农村研究院博士论文奖学金项目"可持续消费视角下人口结构变动对食物需求及资源环境的影响研究"(202320) （202320）
西北农林科技大学科技创新专项项目"食物系统可持续发展与营养健康转型创新团队建设"(2452024106). （2452024106）
