人口与经济Issue(3)：84-98,15.DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1000-4149.2025.03.007
农业转移人口市民化政策间断均衡变迁及其内在机理
The Punctuated Equilibrium Changes and Its Mechanism of the Citizenization Policly of Agricultural Transfer Population:Based on Analysis of 658 Policy Texts
摘要
Abstract
The citizenization policy of agricultural transfer population is crucial for promoting the people-oriented new urbanization construction.In order to clarify the internal logic of the citizenization policy changes of agricultural transfer population,this paper constructs an analytical framework based on the theory of punctuated equilibrium,and selects 658 policy texts of citizenization of agricultural transfer population released in China from 1949 to 2024 for systematic analysis.It is found that the citizenization policy of China's agricultural transfer population has gone through five stages,which are"exploring equilibrium period""strong intermittent period""weak intermittent period""developing equilibrium period"and"perfecting equilibrium period".The process shows significant non-linear development characteristics,which is in line with the basic logic of punctuated equilibrium.Policy changes have a significant impact on agricultural transfer population,the core connotation of citizenization and the state of urbanization development.The internal mechanism of guiding policy change is the interaction between policy image and policy field.The political and economic system reform,the innovation of governing ideas,the outbreak of focal events and the interaction of multiple subjects exert influence on the policy image and policy field to promote the intermittent and balanced change of the citizenization policy of agricultural transfer population.In the future,the citizenization policy of agricultural transfer population should follow the law of urbanization development to ensure the continuity and stability of policy changes.We will continue to put the people at the center and make policy goals more appropriate and more oriented.Pay close attention to the dynamic changes of the policy environment to enhance the adaptability and synergy of the policy system.关键词
农业转移人口/市民化/间断均衡/政策变迁/政策文本分析Key words
agricultural transfer population/citizenization/punctuated equilibrium/policy changes/policy text analysis分类
社会科学引用本文复制引用
李燕凌,李民梁..农业转移人口市民化政策间断均衡变迁及其内在机理[J].人口与经济,2025,(3):84-98,15.基金项目
国家社会科学基金重大项目"数字赋能农业农村公共服务高质量发展研究"(23VRC073) （23VRC073）
人力资源和社会保障部2024年重大课题"进一步推进农民工市民化研究"(RSZD2024-14) （RSZD2024-14）
湖南省社会科学基金重大课题"湖南省公共服务高质量发展研究"(22ZDA014). （22ZDA014）
