山东电力技术2025，Vol.52Issue(5)：79-87,9.DOI:10.20097/j.cnki.issn1007-9904.2025.05.009
基于新型多变量灰色预测模型的电能替代潜力预测研究
Potential Prediction Research of Electric Energy Substitution Based on a Novel Multivariable Grey Prediction Model
摘要
Abstract
Implementing electric energy substitution is a crucial method for enhancing energy utilization efficiency and improving energy consumption standards.Predicting the potential for electric energy substitution is essential for developing plans for electricity and other energy sources,and it is a prerequisite and fundamental basis for effective electric energy substitution.This paper takes into account the impact of data time lags and uncertainty on the prediction of electric energy substitution potential and proposes a time-lagged multivariable grey prediction model based on interval grey numbers(MGM(1,m,N)).Initially,the core and grey series are established based on historical data bounds.Time-lagged MGM(1,m,N)models are then constructed for both the core and grey series to obtain the predicted values.Finally,the upper and lower bounds of the electric energy substitution potential prediction results are derived.Example results demonstrate that the proposed method has good applicability for predicting electric energy substitution potential,especially when considering time lags.关键词
电能替代/潜力预测/灰色预测模型/时滞/区间灰数Key words
electric energy substitution/potential prediction/grey prediction model/time lag/interval grey numbers分类
动力与电气工程引用本文复制引用
卜凡鹏,周旻,张思瑞,方景辉,张旭..基于新型多变量灰色预测模型的电能替代潜力预测研究[J].山东电力技术,2025,52(5):79-87,9.基金项目
国家电网公司总部科技项目(5108-202218280A-2-392-XG).Science and Technology Project of State Grid Corporation of China(5108-202218280A-2-392-XG). （5108-202218280A-2-392-XG）
