山东电力技术2025，Vol.52Issue(5)：88-96,9.DOI:10.20097/j.cnki.issn1007-9904.2025.05.010
考虑碳排放约束的山东省能源转型成效评价及碳达峰策略研究
Evaluation of Energy Transformation Effectiveness in Shandong Province Considering Carbon Emission Constraints and Research on Carbon Peaking Strategies
摘要
Abstract
As a major province in economic development and energy consumption,evaluating the effectiveness of energy transformation and proposing carbon peak strategies in Shandong Province is crucial for achieving the dual carbon goals nationwide.Based on the energy consumption statistics of Shandong Province from 2015 to 2020,constrained by achieving the"dual carbon"goal,the influencing factors of carbon emissions were decomposed,and an energy model system was constructed based on the Chinese energy modeling system,taking into account the mutual influence of Shandong Province's economy,energy,electricity,environment,and other factors,a dynamic simulation of energy consumption and carbon emissions in Shandong Province in the medium to long term under different scenarios was conducted,taking into account the mutual influence of economy,energy,electricity,and emissions in Shandong Province.The evaluation index system for energy transformation at home and abroad was summarized and studied,and an evaluation index system for the effectiveness of energy transformation in Shandong Province was constructed.A carbon peak strategy was proposed.The results show that the energy demand in Shandong Province will peak around 2030 and then decrease,with a clean rate of 83.5%.It is expected that the carbon emissions in Shandong Province will enter a stable downward trend during the 15th Five-Year Plan.Due to the high emission base,low cleanliness rate,lack of hydropower resources,and high resistance to clean substitution of a large number of self-owned thermal power units in Shandong Province,achieving carbon neutrality by 2060 is a challenging task.关键词
能源消费/能源转型/碳排放/情景分析/成效评价Key words
energy consumption/energy transformation/carbon emissions/scenario analysis/effectiveness evaluation分类
经济学引用本文复制引用
赵昕,厉艳,刘之琳,薛万磊,冀星沛..考虑碳排放约束的山东省能源转型成效评价及碳达峰策略研究[J].山东电力技术,2025,52(5):88-96,9.基金项目
国网山东省电力公司科技项目"碳达峰、碳中和目标下山东能源转型发展路径及成效评价研究"(520625210017).Science and Technology Project of State Grid Shandong Electric Power Company"Research on the Path and Effectiveness Evaluation of Energy Transformation and Development in Shandong Province under the Goals of Carbon Peaking and Carbon Neutrality"(520625210017). （520625210017）
