综合智慧能源2025，Vol.47Issue(5)：73-83,11.DOI:10.3969/j.issn.2097-0706.2025.05.008
考虑风电不确定性的电力现货市场联合出清模型
A joint clearing model of electricity spot market considering wind power uncertainty
摘要
Abstract
In a power system with a high wind power share,due to the strong uncertainty of wind power forecasts,the traditional model of joint optimization of the spot market for electric energy and standby in accordance with the maximum load optimization of standby clearing is no longer able to take into account the requirements of security and economy of system operation.Therefore,this paper constructs a joint spot market clearing model considering wind power uncertainty on the basis of wind power forecast error analysis.Firstly,a hybrid skewed distribution model based on the normal cloud model is proposed to accurately characterize the distribution of short-term wind power output forecast errors;secondly,the impact of wind power output forecast errors on power balance constraints and system spinning standby is taken into account in the joint clearing model,and a joint market clearing model based on the opportunity constraints planning is established;subsequently,the wind power output forecast error distribution model is sampled several times and the sampling result is used to match the real-time supply and demand in the market clearing model with the wind power output forecast errors.Subsequently,the wind power forecast error distribution model is sampled several times and the sampling results are used to transform the market clearing model deterministically so that the model can be solved quickly.Finally,a simulation analysis is carried out with the actual data of a region with high wind power share,and the results show that the model proposed in this paper can effectively improve the economy of system operation under the premise of guaranteeing the safety of system operation.关键词
风电预测误差/误差分布模型/旋转备用/现货市场/联合出清模型Key words
wind power prediction error/Error distribution modeling/rotating spares/spot market/joint clearing model分类
能源科技引用本文复制引用
白留星,吴飞宇,叶露阳,蔡长林,雷霞..考虑风电不确定性的电力现货市场联合出清模型[J].综合智慧能源,2025,47(5):73-83,11.基金项目
国能大渡河流域水电开发有限公司科技项目(DDH-QT-2023-49)Science and Technology Project of China Energy Dadu River Basin Hydropower Development Company Limited(DDH-QT-2023-49) （DDH-QT-2023-49）
