水利水电科技进展2025，Vol.45Issue(3)：70-76,7.DOI:10.3880/j.issn.1006-7647.2025.03.010
基于CTGAN数据增强的土石坝溃坝峰值流量预测
Prediction of peak discharge of earth-rock dam failure based on CTGAN data augmentation
摘要
Abstract
In order to accurately predict the peak discharge of earth-rock dam failure,a database containing 156 cases of earth-rock dam failure was established.Based on the failure process and correlation analysis,the dam type,failure mode,the height of water above the breach,and the volume of water stored above the breach were selected as control variables.Considering the constraints of limited available data and the difficulty in obtaining dam failure data,a conditional tabular generative adversarial network(CTGAN)was used to augment the earth-rock dam failure data,so as to increase the diversity of samples,enrich the model training information,and improve the generalization ability.Based on the augmented data,a peak discharge prediction model was constructed using the CatBoost algorithm.The results show that the model based on the augmented data achieves higher prediction accuracy,with a coefficient of determination reaching 0.93,demonstrating excellent prediction performance.Combined with the shapley additive explanation(SHAP)analysis,it is found that the volume of water stored above the breach has the most significant impact on the peak discharge,followed by the height of water above the breach.关键词
土石坝/峰值流量/CTGAN/数据增强/CatBoost/SHAPKey words
earth-rock dam/peak discharge/CTGAN/data augmentation/CatBoost/SHAP分类
水利科学引用本文复制引用
李炎隆,田智雯,张野,邱文,王婷..基于CTGAN数据增强的土石坝溃坝峰值流量预测[J].水利水电科技进展,2025,45(3):70-76,7.基金项目
国家杰出青年科学基金项目(52125904) （52125904）
陕西省创新科研团队项目(2022TD-01) （2022TD-01）
