水土保持研究2025，Vol.32Issue(4)：297-309,13.DOI:10.13869/j.cnki.rswc.2025.04.011
贵州省碳源碳汇时空演变与影响因素研究
Research on the spatiotemporal evolution and influencing factors of carbon sources and sinks in Guizhou Province
摘要
Abstract
[Objective]This paper aims to explore the trends in carbon emission rates and carbon sink capacities in counties,providing scientific support for the development of specific measures and policies for carbon reduction and carbon sink enhancement.[Methods]Carbon source and sink volumes were calculated using CO2 emissions from fossil fuels and land use data.The study employed the carbon ecological carrying capacity coefficient,Gini coefficient,and geodetector to analyze the spatiotemporal changes and influencing factors of carbon sources and sinks in counties of Guizhou Province from 2005 to 2020.[Results](1)Carbon emissions from fossil fuels in the counties of Guizhou Province showed rapid growth,with significant spatial variation.Carbon emissions from cultivated land decreased,while carbon sink volumes increased,with low spatial variation and a stable distribution pattern.(2)Carbon ecological carrying capacity in the counties exhibited a decreasing trend with significant spatial variation.Chishui City had the highest carbon ecological carrying capacity(average 23.29),while Guiyang City had the lowest(average 0.65).(3)The overall carbon gain-loss compensation rate was generally low(average 0.58)and showed a decreasing trend.The province was a net carbon source,but the number of counties with net carbon sinks decreased from 27 to 9.(4)Geodetector analysis showed that factors such as public budget expenditure,education expenditure,annual non-resident population,current GDP at constant prices,and construction land area had the greatest impact on carbon gain and loss.The interaction between two factors showed a non-linear enhancement,with the combined effect of these factors on carbon gain and loss significantly greater than the sum of individual effects.Among them,the interaction between population size and factors like the ecological environment,industrial structure,and economic development had the most significant impact on carbon gain and loss.[Conclusion]The carbon sink capacity in Guizhou Province has steadily improved,but the growth rate of carbon sinks is lower than that of carbon sources and the number of net carbon sink areas is on the decline.Therefore,it is imperative for Guizhou to address the balance between ecological environment protection and economic development by taking measures to improve the energy efficiency of carbon emissions,boost carbon productivity,and enhance carbon sink capacity.关键词
碳源汇/时空演变/碳盈亏/地理探测器/贵州省Key words
carbon sources and sinks/spatiotemporal evolution/carbon gain and loss/geodetector/Guizhou Province分类
资源环境引用本文复制引用
贺祥,杨层,安小敏,李敏,江波..贵州省碳源碳汇时空演变与影响因素研究[J].水土保持研究,2025,32(4):297-309,13.基金项目
贵州省教育厅高校人文社会科学研究项目(2023GZGXRW162,2024RW187) （2023GZGXRW162,2024RW187）
贵州省科技计划项目(黔科合支撑[2022]一般235) （黔科合支撑[2022]一般235）
