水土保持研究2025，Vol.32Issue(4)：375-385,11.DOI:10.13869/j.cnki.rswc.2025.04.017
基于生态安全格局优化的土地利用及生态系统服务价值情景模拟
Scenario simulation of land use and ecosystem service value based on ecological security pattern optimization
摘要
Abstract
[Objective]This study aims to integrate the ecological security pattern into the scenario simulation of land use and ecosystem service value(ESV),providing a reference for ensuring regional ecological security and promoting high-quality territorial spatial development.[Methods]Taking Suqian City of Jiangsu Province as a case study,the FLUS model and equivalent factor method were used to simulate the changes in land use and ESV under different scenarios for 2035.[Results]The areas of low,medium and high ecological security patterns in the study area were 213 471.70,340 548.34,and 384 726.67 hm2,respectively,accounting for 25.03%,39.93%,and 45.11%of the total land area.Compared to the other three scenarios,the multi-objective collaborative scenario maintained a moderate level of ecological security,with relatively mild trends in land use and ESV changes.Arable land decreased by an average of 109.79 hm2 per year,while forest land,grassland,wetlands and water areas decreased by an average of 184.20,8.21,0.70,and 18.49 hm2 annually,respectively.The area of construction land increased by an average of 321.39 hm2 annually.The total ESV was 56.689 54 billion yuan,representing a reduction of only 193.86 million yuan compared to 2020,which was about half of the decline observed under the arable land priority and economic priority scenarios.[Conclusion]Ecological security patterns at different levels exert varying degrees of constraints on land use and ecosystem service value across multiple scenarios.The multi-objective collaborative scenario,while meeting the reasonable demand for construction land driven by economic development,does not pose a significant threat to food or ecological security.Although the regional ecosystem service value decreases,it remains relatively stable overall,which is conducive to achieving balanced,sustainable development across economic,social,and ecological dimensions.关键词
生态安全格局/土地利用/生态系统服务价值/情景模拟Key words
ecological security pattern/land use/ecosystem service value/scenario simulation分类
管理科学引用本文复制引用
陈振,张宇,郭杰,何鸿飞,欧名豪..基于生态安全格局优化的土地利用及生态系统服务价值情景模拟[J].水土保持研究,2025,32(4):375-385,11.基金项目
教育部人文社会科学研究项目(23YJC630019) （23YJC630019）
国家社科基金重点项目(23AZD032) （23AZD032）
国家自然科学基金(42261047) （42261047）
