水土保持研究2025，Vol.32Issue(4)：405-417,13.DOI:10.13869/j.cnki.rswc.2025.04.039
衡邵干旱走廊"水-能-粮-生"系统仿真及优化研究
Study on the simulation and optimization of'Water-Energy-Food-Ecology'system in the Heng Shao Arid Corridor
摘要
Abstract
[Objective]The aims of this study are to systematically reveal the evolution patterns of natural resource factor system in typical arid regions,and identify the optimal development strategy to provide support for coordinating natural resource development and alleviating ecological pressure.[Methods]Taking the Heng Shao Arid Corridor in Hunan Province as an example,based on the data of many years of social and economic statistical yearbooks and water resources bulletins,the utilization of water,energy,food,and other resources in the region was assessed.System Dynamics(SD)model was used to design different development scenarios to simulate and optimize the'Water-Energy-Food-Ecology'(WEFE)Nexus,and the future developmental path was proposed.[Results](1)Since 2008,the gap between food production and water supply in the Heng Shao Arid Corridor had continuously widened,while the comprehensive indices of wastewater discharge,exhaust gas emissions,and environmental regulations had continued to decline,but the continuous improvement in energy efficiency was insufficient to offset the large energy consumption caused by rapid economic development.(2)The error in the model test was less than 10％,and the SD model could effectively simulate the local WEFE Nexus system.Four development scenarios were constructed:economic development,ecological protection,food security,and resource conservation.The simulation results showed that prioritizing local economic development would significantly increase the consumption of various resources,aggravate environmental pollution,and negatively impact food security,while focusing on food security would enhance local food production and self-sufficiency rate.The resource conservation scenario outperformed the ecological protection scenario,which could promote the decline of resource consumption,reduce the wastewater discharge and exhaust gas emissions,and thus improve the quality of ecological environment.Through trade-off synergy analysis,the resource conservation scenario obviously had the best adjustment effect on resource supply and demand and ecological environment while ensuring the stable and healthy development of economy.(3)From 2021 to 2035,the WEFE Nexus system of the Heng Shao Arid Corridor was projected to be at a medium level of development.The comprehensive system evaluation index of the resource conservation scenario in every year was projected to be higher than that of the current development scenario,with the difference increasing annually(the difference would be 0.051 in 2035).[Conclusion]Therefore,it is urgent to continuously improve the efficiency and quality of food production,the treatment system of industrial wastewater and exhaust gas,and ecosystem stability,while promoting water-saving irrigation technology and the energy structure transformation,so as to realize the comprehensive development of natural resource system in the Heng Shao Arid Corridor.关键词
系统动力学/WEFE Nexus/仿真模拟/衡邵干旱走廊Key words
system dynamics/WEFE Nexus/simulation/Heng Shao Arid Corridor分类
管理科学引用本文复制引用
覃湘,周浩,杨扬..衡邵干旱走廊"水-能-粮-生"系统仿真及优化研究[J].水土保持研究,2025,32(4):405-417,13.基金项目
湖南省水利科研项目(XSKJ2024064-31) （XSKJ2024064-31）
湖南省自然科学基金(2024JJ5263) （2024JJ5263）
国家自然科学基金项目(42301300). （42301300）
