生物安全学报（中英文）2025，Vol.34Issue(2)：162-171,10.DOI:10.3969/j.issn.2095-1787.20240016
基于气候变化情景下红火蚁在贵州的适生区预测
Prediction of the potential distribution of Solenopsis invicta in Guizhou Province in the context of climate change
摘要
Abstract
[Aim]Solenopsis invicta is included in China's list of key invasive alien species for control,which seriously threatens ag-ricultural production and ecological security in Guizhou.In this study,we predicted and analyzed suitable habitats for S.invicta in Guizhou Province.Effective control measures should be developed to prevent the further spread of S.invicta in Guizhou Province.[Method]After combining the environmental,occurrence,and distribution data,the MaxEnt ecological niche model and ArcGIS were used to predict the suitable areas for S.invicta in Guizhou Province under the current and future climatic conditions.The area under the curve(AUC)of the receiver operating characteristic was used to evaluate the accuracy of the prediction model.[Result]The AUC values of the predicted results by the MaxEnt model were 0.935 and 0.932,respectively,indicating that the predicted re-sults were highly accurate.The area of potentially suitable habitats for S.invicta accounted for 72.56％ of the provincial area.Among them,the areas of high,medium,and low suitability accounted for approximately 8.92％,31.99％,and 31.65％ of the national are-a,respectively.High and medium suitability areas are mainly concentrated in southern Guizhou.Particularly,the highly suitable ar-ea is mainly concentrated in southwestern Guizhou,and a few areas in southeastern Guizhou;the medium suitability areas are the peripheral expansion of the high suitability areas,mainly concentrated in Anshun City,and southeastern and southern Guizhou.Un-der different future climatic scenarios,the area of suitable habitats for S.invicta in Guizhou is expected to increase,with the center of mass gradually shifting northward.The analysis results of the importance of environmental variables obtained using the Jack knife-cut method showed that temperature and precipitation are the key factors affecting the distribution of S.invicta.[Conclusion]S.in-victa has a wide range of potentially suitable areas in Guizhou Province,and it is necessary to strengthen the monitoring and early warning systems and implement effective control measures to prevent the spread of S.invicta and reduce economic losses.关键词
红火蚁/MaxEnt模型/适生区/气候/贵州Key words
Solenopsis invicta/MaxEnt model/suitable area/climate/Guizhou引用本文复制引用
张念念,黄安香,喻三鹏,齐大鹏..基于气候变化情景下红火蚁在贵州的适生区预测[J].生物安全学报（中英文）,2025,34(2):162-171,10.基金项目
贵州省科技支撑项目([2021]504号) （[2021]504号）
贵州省科研机构创新能力建设专项资金([2023]009号) （[2023]009号）
