生物安全学报（中英文）2025，Vol.34Issue(2)：172-179,8.DOI:10.3969/j.issn.2095-1787.20240038
蓝胫束颈蝗在新疆的潜在分布区域及生态适宜性预测
Potential distribution regions and ecological suitability prediction of Sphingonotus coerulipes in Xinjiang
摘要
Abstract
[Aim]As a dominant species of indigenous locusts in Xinjiang,Sphingonotus coerulipes Uvarov requires enhanced moni-toring,risk assessment and control capabilities within its highly suitable distribution regions.The results of this research provide a solid foundation for the precise control measures of locusts,offering practical guidance for future prevention and control efforts.[Method]This study utilized MaxEnt model,ArcGIS software,and ENMTools et cetera.Based on 225 natural distribution points and 11 environmental variables of Sphingonotus coerulipes,it predicted and analyzed the potential suitable distribution regions,domi-nant environmental variables,ecological niche parameters,and centroid migration of Sphingonotus coerulipes in current and future climate(SSP126,SSP245,SSP585).[Result]This study found that:(1)The suitable distribution regions of S.coerulipes were mainly concentrated in northern Xinjiang and the Kizilsu Kirgiz Autonomous Prefecture in southern Xinjiang.Highly suitable regions include Altay Prefecture,Ili Kazakh Autonomous Prefecture,and Kizilsu Kirgiz Autonomous Prefecture.(2)Compared to the cur-rent climate scenario,suitable distribution regions of S.coerulipes were expected to decrease under the future climate scenario.Theaverage reduction is 1％in the SSP126 scenario,1.68％ in the SSP245 scenario,1.55％ in the SSP585 scenario;(3)Dominant climate factors affecting the distribution of Sphingonotus coerulipes include the highest temperature in the warmest month(bio5),the precipitation difference coefficient(bio15),and the average temperature in the warmest quarter(bio10).Under current climate conditions,the ecological niche parameters suitable for the distribution of this species are:the highest temperature of the warmest month ranging from 24-31℃,the precipitation difference coefficient less than 44.35,and the average temperature in the warmest quarter ranging from 16.35-22.54℃;(4)In the future climate scenarios,the centroid of S.coerulipes distribution remains in the Tacheng area,but overall,it migrates towards the southwest.[Conclusion]Currently and in the future,the highly suitable regions of S.coerulipes in the Altay area constitutes a significant proportion of its total highly suitable regions.Relevant authorities can con-duct on-site investigations of these suitable regions to achieve early warning,timely prevention and control,thereby reducing the damage caused by locusts.关键词
蓝胫束颈蝗/MaxEnt模型/适生分布区/环境变量/质心迁移Key words
Sphingonotus coerulipes/MaxEnt model/suitable distribution regions/environmental variables/centroid migration引用本文复制引用
万育欣,宋占云,雷子怡,周成龙,赵远娥,潘冉冉,易光平,季荣..蓝胫束颈蝗在新疆的潜在分布区域及生态适宜性预测[J].生物安全学报（中英文）,2025,34(2):172-179,8.基金项目
国家重点研发项目(2022YFD1400505) （2022YFD1400505）
新疆重点基金(2023D01D08) （2023D01D08）
天山英才领军人才项目(TSYCLJ0016) （TSYCLJ0016）
第三次新疆综合科学考察项目(2021xjkk0605) （2021xjkk0605）
新疆草原有害生物普查项目(2021-2023)(XJCYYH-01) （2021-2023）
