护理研究2025，Vol.39Issue(10)：1600-1607,8.DOI:10.12102/j.issn.1009-6493.2025.10.003
肿瘤病人非计划再入院风险预测模型的构建与验证
Construction and verification of risk prediction model for unplanned readmission of patients with tumor
何雪洋 1张昕 2李琴 2原继凤 2王丽芳 2宋建波2
作者信息
- 1. 山西医科大学护理学院,山西 030001
- 2. 山西白求恩医院(山西医学科学院),山西医科大学第三医院,同济山西医院
- 折叠
摘要
Abstract
Objective:To explore the influencing factors of unplanned readmission of patients with tumor,to construct a risk prediction model,and to verify its effectiveness.Methods:A total of 4 818 patients with solid tumors admitted to the cancer center of a tertiary grade A hospital in Shanxi province were selected as the research subjects from January 2023 to May 2024.The influencing factors of unplanned readmission of patients with tumor were explored using Logistic regression analysis.A predictive model was constructed,and its effectiveness was evaluated.Results:Out of 4 818 cases,269 patients experienced unplanned readmission,with incidence rate of 5.58%.The results of Logistic regression analysis showed that body mass index,Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group(ECOG)score,head and neck tumors,previous total cycles of chemotherapy,previous total cycles of immunotherapy,radiation therapy administered during last hospitalization,targeted therapy administered during last hospitalization,and neutrophil to lymphocyte ratio(NLR)were the influencing factors of unplanned readmission of patients with tumor(P<0.05).A prediction model was constructed based on the influencing factors.Area under the curve(AUC)of receiver operator characteristic of the model was 0.789(95%CI 0.754-0.823).AUC of receiver operator characteristic of the model after internal validation using the Bootstrap method was 0.771(95%CI 0.761-0.776).The Hosmer-Lemeshow test results showed P=0.158.Calibration curve indicated that the predicted probability was close to the actual probability.Conclusions:The occurrence of unplanned readmission of patients with tumor was influenced by body mass index,ECOG score,head and neck tumors,previous total cycles of chemotherapy,previous total cycles of immunotherapy,radiation therapy administered during last hospitalization,targeted therapy administered during last hospitalization,and NLR.The risk prediction model for unplanned readmission of patients with tumor constructed based on these influencing factors has good efficacy.关键词
肿瘤/非计划再入院/影响因素/模型构建/列线图/护理Key words
tumor/unplanned readmission/influencing factors/model construction/Nomogram model/nursing引用本文复制引用
何雪洋,张昕,李琴,原继凤,王丽芳,宋建波..肿瘤病人非计划再入院风险预测模型的构建与验证[J].护理研究,2025,39(10):1600-1607,8.
