铁路物流2025，Vol.43Issue(5)：53-60,72,9.DOI:10.16669/j.cnki.issn.2097-5899.202412020003
基于因果贝叶斯网络的重载铁路接触网风险评估研究
Risk Assessment for Heavy-Haul Railway Contact Lines Based on Causal Bayesian Network
赵国智 1王振林 2闫龙 2张经祥 3高伟 4李清波 5蔡莉莉6
作者信息
- 1. 陕西铁路物流集团有限公司,陕西 西安 710000
- 2. 陕西靖神铁路有限责任公司,陕西 榆林 719000
- 3. 陕西靖神铁路有限责任公司 企管规划部,陕西 榆林 719000
- 4. 陕西靖神铁路有限责任公司 孟家湾检修车间,陕西 榆林 719000
- 5. 陕西靖神铁路有限责任公司 柠条塔车间,陕西 榆林 719000
- 6. 北京全路通信信号研究设计院集团有限公司 运输指挥与信息技术研究院,北京 100070
- 折叠
摘要
Abstract
This paper proposed an assessment model for heavy-haul contact lines based on the causal Bayesian network to solve the problem that existing studies have not fully considered the complex causal relationship between risk factors and consequences.Firstly,risk factors such as climatic conditions,vehicle loads,and equipment failures were identified via historical data analysis.Then,a causal network for risk propagation was constructed by combining the contact line fault tree and the failure mode and effect analysis(FMEA)method to clarify the conditional probability relationship between the risk factors.Additionally,reverse inference was carried out by adopting the Bayesian network to identify key risk nodes and causal chains.Finally,the risk was evaluated based on the actual operation data.The results show that the proposed method can not only analyze the direct risk effect,but also reveal the potential causal paths,thus improving the assessment accuracy and reliability,and providing references for railway operation and maintenance.关键词
重载铁路/接触网/风险评估模型/因果分析/贝叶斯网络Key words
Heavy-Haul Railway/Contact Line/Risk Assessment Model/Causal Analysis/Bayesian Network分类
交通运输引用本文复制引用
赵国智,王振林,闫龙,张经祥,高伟,李清波,蔡莉莉..基于因果贝叶斯网络的重载铁路接触网风险评估研究[J].铁路物流,2025,43(5):53-60,72,9.
