太平洋学报2025，Vol.33Issue(4)：63-79,17.DOI:10.14015/j.cnki.1004-8049.2025.04.005
冷战后中美东南亚三方经济博弈演化的分析框架与范式迭代
The Evolution of China-US-Southeast Asia Trilateral Economic Game in the Post-Cold War Era:Analytical Frameworks and Paradigm Shifts
摘要
Abstract
This study examines the evolution of China-American economic competition in Southeast Asia since 1991,in order to reveal the underlying logic and paradigm shifts in the region's economic order through the three-dimensional analytical framework of"strategic orientation—institutional competition and cooperation—strategic trade-offs".The research demonstrates that China-American economic rivalry in Southeast Asia has increasingly manifested as a trilateral dynamic,with escalating complexity across three evolutionary phases.First,the phase of trajectory divergence(1991-2008):the U.S.pursued institutional embeddedness through multilateral mechanisms,while China extended market-driven production networks,both of which prompted Southeast Asia's transition from passive dependence to crisis-driven institutional ad-aptation.Second,the phase of rule-making competition(2009-2016):intensified rivalry centered on regu-latory dominance,marked by the U.S.efforts to decouple supply chains via the TPP versus China's infra-structure-anchored Belt and Road Initiative,enabling Southeast Asian states to exploit institutional arbitrage for dual dividends.Third,the phase of systemic contestation(since 2017):the ever intensifying competi-tion-cooperation has resulted in China's restructure of its regional ecosystem versus America's preservation of its technological hegemony,with Southeast Asia navigating compound hedging strategies to forge a third path in regional economic governance.The study concludes that Southeast Asia's institutional resilience and technological neutrality have transformed great-power rivalry pressures into innovative institutional momen-tum,fostering inclusive development of the regional economic order with all stakeholders involved.关键词
中国/美国/东南亚经济秩序/经济博弈Key words
China/the United States/the Southeast Asian economic order/economic game分类
社会科学引用本文复制引用
王丽娜..冷战后中美东南亚三方经济博弈演化的分析框架与范式迭代[J].太平洋学报,2025,33(4):63-79,17.基金项目
本文系国家社会科学基金青年项目"中美欧数字治理博弈背景下东南亚数字治理规范的生成机制及我对策研究"(24CGJ044)的阶段性成果. （24CGJ044）
