土木工程与管理学报2025，Vol.42Issue(2)：62-67,6.DOI:10.13579/j.cnki.2095-0985.2025.20240353
预售监管视角下地产项目投资风险识别
Real Estate Cash Flow Risk Identification from Pre-sale Supervision Perspective
摘要
Abstract
To enhance the risk management of new and ongoing projects,this study proposes a risk identification method that integrates cash flow management and system dynamics,considering the unique circumstances of China's pre-sale supervision policy.A causal analysis diagram of the cash flow risk identification is constructed using Vensim-PLE,leading to the development of a system dy-namics model for cash flow risk identification.The results show that the pre-sale funds supervision pol-icy significantly affects real estate companies'cash flow.Under high sales rates and short inventory turnover periods,funds in closely monitored accounts can adequately cover the construction progress payments,resulting in lower cash flow risk.Conversely,under low sales rates and long inventory turn-over periods,funds in these accounts often fall short of project demands,requiring companies to use non-monitored accounts for payments,which increases cash flow risk.The application of the system dynamics model demonstrates the dynamic changes in cash flow of real estate companies under various conditions,providing an effective tool for identifying and managing cash flow risks.关键词
地产企业/现金流/预售资金监管/系统动力学(SD)/风险识别Key words
real estate company/cash flow/pre-sale fund supervision/system dynamics(SD)/risk identification分类
经济学引用本文复制引用
赵平,桑宗政,闫丽颖,刘倩..预售监管视角下地产项目投资风险识别[J].土木工程与管理学报,2025,42(2):62-67,6.基金项目
陕西省社会科学基金(2019S047) （2019S047）
