西北林学院学报2025，Vol.40Issue(3)：141-152,12.DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1001-7461.2025.03.17
基于土地利用变化的中国陆地生态系统碳储量时空演变与预测
Spatio-temporal Evolution and Prediction of Carbon Storage in China's Terrestrial Ecosystems Based on Land Use Change
摘要
Abstract
Terrestrial ecosystems,as an important part of global carbon storage,play a significant role in the global carbon cycle and climate change,and the change of carbon storage in terrestrial ecosystems caused by land use change is an important link in carbon cycle research.Focusing on China's terrestrial ecosys-tems,the land use/cover data of 2000,2010 and 2020 were selected and 11 driving factors were introduced to predict the land use/cover pattern of 2040 under the scenarios of natural change and ecological protection based on the PLUS model.Furthermore,the carbon storage of China was assessed using the InVEST model for both historical and two future scenarios,and the spatial pattern were examined using the Moran's index and hotspot analysis.The results showed that:1)From 2000 to 2020,significant changes occurred in land use types.The area of construction land expanded rapidly,increasing by 99 125 km2(66.21％),while the area of forest land increased by 41 745 km2(1.74％).In contrast,the areas of arable land and grassland decreased by 62 793 km2(-3.22％)and 42 852 km2(-1.51％),respectively.The rapid expansion of con-struction land due to economic development was the main cause of the reduction in arable land area.2)During the study period,the terrestrial ecosystem carbon storage showed a downward trend,primarily due to the decrease in ecological land area caused by economic development.Under future natural change scenarios,carbon storage is projected to continue decreasing.However,under ecological protection scenari-os,it is expected to first decrease and then increase.3)The distribution of historical and future carbon stor-age in China shows a positive spatial correlation(Moran's I index＞0),with a Z-score greater than 2.58.Carbon storage in countylevel administrative regions is generally clustered in space,with the northern Northeast and Tibet serving as hotspots for vegetation carbon storage distribution.4)The rapid expansion of construction land was the main cause of the decline in terrestrial ecosystem carbon storage in China from 2000 to 2020.关键词
中国陆地生态系统/土地利用/覆被变化/碳储量/情景模拟/InVEST-PLUS模型Key words
China's terrestrial ecosystem/carbon storage/land use/cover change/scenario simulation/InVEST-PLUS model分类
资源环境引用本文复制引用
顾丽,杨惠媛,曾友鼎,蔡志同..基于土地利用变化的中国陆地生态系统碳储量时空演变与预测[J].西北林学院学报,2025,40(3):141-152,12.基金项目
陕西省重点研发计划项目(2024SF-ZDCYL-05-07) （2024SF-ZDCYL-05-07）
陕西省社会科学基金项目(2022R009). （2022R009）
