中国城市林业2025，Vol.23Issue(2)：75-83,9.DOI:10.12169/zgcsly.2024.12.27.0003
多情景模拟下自然保护区景观生态风险预测及优化
Ecological Risk Prediction of Nature Reserve Landscape Under Multi-scenario Simulation and Its Optimization
摘要
Abstract
[Objective]To explore the dynamic changes in landscape ecological risk and land uses within nature reserves under multiple scenario simulations and provide a scientific basis for reducing landscape ecological risks in nature reserves.[Method]With Tianjin Ancient Coast and Wetland National Nature Reserve as a research object,the study uses the PLUS model to forecast land uses in 2040 under natural development and then adopts the MOP model for an optimized scenario.The Evolution of Landscape Ecological Risk Index(ERI)is used to analyze the evolution pattern of landscape ecological risks in both scenarios.[Result]1)The risk is high in the center and low on the periphery of the nature reserve,and the areas with medium,high and higher risks are mainly located in core and buffer zones;2)Under the scenario of natural development,medium-and high-risk areas decline by 0.70%and 5.67%,respectively,while low,lower,and higher-risk areas increase by 1.15%,1.39%,and 3.83%,respectively.Reductions in high-and higher-risk areas happen in buffer and core zones;and 3)The MOP-optimized scenario sees increases in low-and lower-risk areas by 0.69%and 13.12%,respectively,and decreases in medium-,higher-,and high-risk areas.Notably,reductions in high-and higher-risk areas occur in buffer and core zones,indicating improved risk conditions under the MOP-optimized scenario.[Conclusion]Compared to the natural development scenario,the MOP-optimized scenario fully considers and maximizes regional ecological benefits,which helps optimize the land use structure and the alignments with the future development needs of nature reserves.In the future,the scope of scenario settings should be further expanded,and more driving factors of land use change should be comprehensively considered to provide more scientific theoretical support for the green development of ecologically sensitive areas such as nature reserves.关键词
景观生态风险/土地利用/多情景模拟/自然保护区Key words
landscape ecological risk/land use/multi-scenario simulation/natural reserve引用本文复制引用
徐嵩,季鹏云,张戈..多情景模拟下自然保护区景观生态风险预测及优化[J].中国城市林业,2025,23(2):75-83,9.基金项目
天津市艺术科学规划项目(B22039) （B22039）
