中国人口·资源与环境2025，Vol.35Issue(2)：25-40,16.DOI:10.12062/cpre.20241135
气候变化阻碍外商直接投资了吗?
Is climate change deterring foreign direct investment?
摘要
Abstract
Climate change is one of the critical factors influencing foreign direct investment(FDI).Based on panel data from 157 coun-tries between 2006 and 2019,this study employed the climate risk index published by Germanwatch as the core explanatory variable and used the system GMM model to examine the impact of climate change on FDI.The results showed that:① Climate change signifi-cantly inhibited FDI inflows in the short term,but this effect became insignificant after one year.Robustness tests,including replacing explanatory and dependent variables,confirmed these findings.② Climate change hindered FDI inflows in low-income countries but had little impact on high-income countries.There were geographic disparities in its effects,with more pronounced inhibitory effects in the Northern Hemisphere.Smaller economies were less capable of attracting FDI compared to larger ones.③ Mechanism analysis re-vealed that climate change reduced FDI inflows by affecting employment,infrastructure development,and fiscal balance.④ Sectoral analysis showed that climate change significantly reduced FDI inflows into agriculture,forestry,fisheries,construction,finance and in-surance,manufacturing,and services but had no significant effect on basic industries such as electricity,mining,and water production and supply.These findings are crucial for understanding the impact of climate change on FDI.Policymakers should pay attention to the short-term effects of climate change on FDI,particularly in sectors such as agriculture,forestry,fisheries,construction,and services.Low-income and small economies should take measures to mitigate the negative effects of climate change on attracting FDI.关键词
气候变化/外商直接投资/动态面板模型Key words
climate change/foreign direct investment/dynamic panel model分类
经济学引用本文复制引用
马宇,马小贤,梁荣平,刘恒..气候变化阻碍外商直接投资了吗?[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2025,35(2):25-40,16.基金项目
国家社会科学基金重点项目"我国合意的跨境资本流量区间测算及管控政策研究"(批准号:16AJY026). （批准号:16AJY026）
