中国人口·资源与环境2025，Vol.35Issue(2)：68-77,10.DOI:10.12062/cpre.20240740
极端高温对农业碳排放的影响
Impact of extremely high temperatures on agricultural carbon emissions
摘要
Abstract
Clarifying the relationship between climate change and agricultural carbon emissions is a prerequisite for formulating effec-tive agricultural decarbonization policies and achieving green development in agriculture.Against the background of climate change,ex-treme high-temperature events are becoming increasingly frequent.On the one hand,extremely high temperatures have directly stimu-lated an increase in soil carbon emissions,turning terrestrial ecosystems into carbon sources.On the other hand,lack of planning and guidance in the implementation of some adaptation measures to climate change has exacerbated soil carbon emissions.Based on climate data from 2 647 counties in China from 2000 to 2020,this study utilized a spatial Durbin model to explore the impact of extremely high temperatures on agricultural carbon emissions and analyzed the moderating effects of labor force employment levels and fiscal support for agriculture.The main conclusions were as follows:① Extremely high temperatures significantly increased agricultural carbon emis-sions,with the impact intensifying from[24℃,27℃),reaching its peak at temperatures greater than or equal to 33℃.Marginal effect re-sults indicated that for each additional day with an average temperature≥33℃,agricultural emissions increased by 1.30%.However,sunshine duration showed a negative correlation with agricultural carbon emissions at the 1%significance level,suggesting the agricul-tural carbon emissions decreased as the sunshine duration extended.② Agricultural labor input played a moderating role in the impact of extremely high temperatures on agricultural carbon emissions,amplifying the positive effect.However,due to bias in fiscal support for agriculture,the moderating effect of fiscal support on extremely high temperatures and agricultural carbon emissions was not signifi-cant.③ Heterogeneity analysis revealed significant regional differences in the impact of extremely high temperatures,with notable car-bon-increasing effects in plain and hilly areas,value-added high agricultural zones,and major grain-producing areas.Therefore,effec-tive climate adaptation measures must consider the dual impacts of extreme climate change and agricultural input expansion acting on greenhouse gas emissions and crop production,and strive to avoid maladaptation.All climate change adaptation measures should be guided by a green development philosophy,while giving consideration to disaster prevention,decarbonization,and agricultural econom-ic effects.关键词
气候变化/农业碳排放/极端高温/适应不良Key words
climate change/agricultural carbon emissions/extremely high temperature/maladaptation分类
经济学引用本文复制引用
王韶华,吴海霞,肖琴,李俊杰,李建平..极端高温对农业碳排放的影响[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2025,35(2):68-77,10.基金项目
财政部和农业农村部国家现代农业产业技术体系项目"水稻产业经济岗位科学家"(批准号:CARS-01-54) （批准号:CARS-01-54）
农业农村部课题"稻谷市场分析预警及会商"(批准号:A160804) （批准号:A160804）
中国农业科学院农科英才农业科学项目"领军人才"(批准号:GJ2023-18-4). （批准号:GJ2023-18-4）
