中国岩溶2025，Vol.44Issue(1)：100-112,123,14.DOI:10.11932/karst20250107
近30年岩溶地区碳储量时空变化分析及预测
Analysis and prediction of spatial and temporal variation of carbon storage in limestone area in recent 30 years:A case study of the Hongshui River Basin
摘要
Abstract
The vulnerable ecology of karst areas is characterized by limited environmental capacity,poor soil quality,insufficient water resources,low land carrying capacity,and high yet vulnerable biodiversity.These factors contribute to low ecosystem productivity and a diminished ability to withstand disturbances.Therefore,it is crucial to understand the causes of changes in ecosystem carbon storage to prevent and mitigate ecosystem degradation and to support sustainable development in karst areas.The Hongshui River Basin is located in the northwest and central regions of Guangxi,characterized by high terrain in the northwest and low terrain in the southeast.It is the main tributary of the Pearl River Basin and encompasses the largest contiguous karst area in Guangxi,covering an area of 50,479.745 km2.Of this,the karst landform area spans 33,942.048 km2,accounting for 67％ of the total area.The Hongshui River Basin is a typical karst basin located in Southwest China.It features widely distributed karst landforms,significant altitude variations,and generally thin soil with low fertility and poor water retention capacity.As a result,the ecological environment in this regions is extremely fragile.The vulnerability of natural attributes such as carbon storage function and soil erosion in karst basins,combined with human activities,has led to severe ecological degradation in karst areas. Based on the InVEST model,this study took the Hongshui River Basin as an example to evaluate changes in ecosystem carbon storage in the karst area for the years 1990,2000,2010 and 2020.At the same time,the PLUS model was employed to simulate the trend of carbon storage changes in the study area under three future scenarios:natural development,urban prioritization and ecological protection.A geographical detector was utilized to identify the main driving factors influencing land use,precipitation,temperature,population density,and other elements affecting the spatial heterogeneity of carbon storage in the karst region of the study area.The conclusions are as follows, (1)From 1990 to 2020,the spatial distribution characteristics of carbon storage in the Hongshui River Basin showed a gradual increase from the southeast to the northwest.Over the past 30 years,the total carbon storage in the basin gradually increased by 71.59×106t.The most significant increase in carbon storage occurred between 1990 and 2000,indicating that the carbon sink capacity of the Hongshui River Basin was stronger than its carbon source over this period.Overall,the carbon sink effect surpassed the carbon source effect in the basin. (2)In the year 2030,the carbon storage in the Hongshui River Basin is projected to be 927.67×106 t,914.84×106t and 93 0.71×106 t under the scenarios of natural development,urban development and ecological protection,respectively.Compared with 2020,both the natural development scenario and ecological protection scenario for the Hongshui River Basin are expected to demonstrate a generally increasing trend in carbon storage.This indicates that the carbon sink capacity under these scenarios in the future will be stronger than that of the carbon source.In 2030,the carbon storage of the Hongshui River Basin will increase by 7.69×106 t and 10.74×106 t,respectively.Compared with the natural development scenario,the ecological protection scenario shows advantages in areas where the overall spatial distribution of carbon storage increases.Under the urban development scenario for the year 2030,the carbon storage in the Hongshui River Basin is projected to decrease by 5.14×106 t.As urban socio-economic development necessitates the expansion of urban construction land,urban development will lead to a reduction in forest land,which has a significant capacity for carbon sequestration in karst areas.This reduction will disrupt the ecological balance in this regions,further diminishing the carbon sequestration capacity of the basin and gradually shifting its carbon source-sink effect from a carbon sink to a carbon source.(3)The single-factor detection results from the geographic detector indicate that land use is the main driving factor influencing the spatial heterogeneity of carbon storage in the Hongshui River Basin,with a q value of 0.833.Additionally,the average annual NDVI has been shown to explain the spatial heterogeneity of carbon storage,with a q value of 0.545.The interactive detection results show that the interaction between land use and the annual average NDVI factor have the most significant effect on the change in carbon storage within the Hongshui River Basin,with an explanatory power of 0.833.This indicates that the specific combination of the land use interactions,annual average NDVI and other factors—such as annual average temperature,annual average rainfall,digital elevation model,and population density—will influence the spatial distribution of carbon storage.The land use change factor is the main contributor to the increase of carbon storage in the Hongshui River Basin,followed by the annual average NDVI factor.The findings of this study may provide significant theoretical and data support for the sustainable development of carbon storage within ecosystem services in the Hongshui River Basin.Furthermore,they will assist in the formulation of more effective ecological protection and resource management policies aimed at enhancing the carbon sink capacity of the ecosystem and promoting environmental health and sustainable development.关键词
碳储量/驱动因素/InVEST模型/岩溶地区/红水河流域Key words
carbon storage/driving factors/in VEST model/karst area/Hongshui River Basin分类
资源环境引用本文复制引用
晏红波,曾金钊,卢献健,赵凤阳..近30年岩溶地区碳储量时空变化分析及预测[J].中国岩溶,2025,44(1):100-112,123,14.基金项目
国家自然科学基金项目(42361052) （42361052）
广西自然科学基金项目(2022GXNSFBA035639) （2022GXNSFBA035639）
国家自然科学基金项目(42064003) （42064003）
