中国药业2025，Vol.34Issue(10)：44-49,6.DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1006-4931.2025.10.010
肾移植术后他克莫司肾损伤预测模型研究
Study on the Predictive Model of Tacrolimus-Induced Kidney Injury After Renal Transplantation
摘要
Abstract
Objective To analyze the influencing factors of renal injury induced by tacrolimus in patients after renal transplantation,and establish a prediction model of tacrolimus-induced kidney injury.Methods The clinical data and laboratory test results of renal transplant patients treated with tacrolimus as immunosuppressive regimen in the Second Affiliated Hospital of Naval Medical University from June 2010 to June 2020 were collected.The correlation analysis was carried out,and the corresponding indexes were included to establish the prediction model of renal injury,and the consistency analysis was carried out with the three commonly used clinical evaluation formulas of renal injury based on cystatin C(CysC).Results 1 258 cases were included,including 292 cases with renal injury and 966 cases without renal injury.Multivariate Logistic analysis showed that age,lymphocyte percentage,hematocrit,urea,total protein,neutrophil percentage and mean corpuscular volume were risk factors for renal injury in patients after renal transplantation.The area under the curve of the renal injury prediction model based on the 25 indicators selected by univariate analysis was 0.700 6[95%CI(0.661,0.740)],the sensitivity was 71.5%,and the specificity was 57.9%(the best cut-off value was 0.208).The Kappa coefficient between the established prediction model and the FAS-SCysC formula was 0.612.Conclusion The predication model demostrates good predictive performance,and shows strong consistency with the FAS-SCysC formula,which can predict the risk of renal injury in patients and help to carry out early monitoring of patients.关键词
他克莫司/肾损伤/肾移植术后/预测模型Key words
tacrolimus/kidney injury/after renal transplantation/predictive model分类
医药卫生引用本文复制引用
高洁,梁静蕾,郑鳕洋,温燕,庞涛,张凤..肾移植术后他克莫司肾损伤预测模型研究[J].中国药业,2025,34(10):44-49,6.基金项目
国家自然科学基金[82274059] （）
中国药学会医院药学专委会医院药学人才专项资助项目[CPA-Z05-ZC-2024-003] （）
上海青年药学人才能力提升项目[2023-10]. （）
