中国水利Issue(9)：1-13,13.DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1000-1123.2025.09.001
我国用水基本规律与战略研判的认识思考
Insights and reflections on basic laws and strategic assessment of water use in China
摘要
Abstract
The evolution of water use trends is closely related to the overall landscape of economic and social development and ecological civilization construction,directly impacting the overarching pattern of major water resources projects.Since China's water consumption statistics peaked in 2013,debates have emerged regarding the existence of driving forces behind water demand growth and the future trajectory of water use,necessitating systematic responses.By summarizing recent research findings,this study presents ten understandings and reflections on critical issues such as whether water demand has peaked,how it will evolve,and when the peak will occur.The study suggests that water use differs from water demand;current actual water consumption is influenced by multiple factors,including supply-side constraints,exhibiting characteristics of zero growth.However,with changes in consumption structure upgrades,urbanization advancement,and increasing instability in international trade,China's water demand still has room for growth.It is essential to enhance water supply security through measures such as continuously promoting water conservation and constructing national water network projects.Considering the most stringent water resource management system,economic development needs,and existing project planning system,it is predicted that China's water demand peak will be approximately 640 billion to 650 billion cubic meters,with the extreme point likely to occur between 2035 and 2040,indicating a growth period of about ten years.关键词
用水规律/用水达峰/用水需求/供给侧Key words
water use pattern/water use peak/water demand/supply side分类
建筑与水利引用本文复制引用
赵勇,何国华,王建华,何凡,李雯晴..我国用水基本规律与战略研判的认识思考[J].中国水利,2025,(9):1-13,13.基金项目
国家重点研发计划(2021YFC3200204) （2021YFC3200204）
国家自然科学基金(52025093、52109042、52394230). （52025093、52109042、52394230）
