大气科学2025，Vol.49Issue(2)：550-564,15.DOI:10.3878/j.issn.1006-9895.2405.24023
不同尺度初始误差对2021年台风烟花路径和强度模拟预报的影响
The Impacts of Different Scale Initial Errors on the Track and Intensity Simulated Forecasts of Typhoon In-fa in 2021
摘要
Abstract
This study examines the typhoon In-fa in 2021 to investigate the impact of initial errors at different scales on the forecast of tropical cyclone track and intensity.The WRF model was driven separately by the FNL(Final Reanalysis Data)from NCEP and the ERA5(the fifth major global reanalysis data)from ECMWF to conduct long-term(14 days)and high-resolution(3 km)simulations of typhoon In-Fa.These two simulations generated the control experiments CTL_F and CTL_E,respectively.The simulation results of experiments CTL_F and CTL_E were then compared against the best track,with the one closer to the best track regarded as the true value and the other as the forecast with errors.The differences of the initial fields of CTL_F and CTL_E was decomposed into small scale(＜200 km),mesoscale(200～2000 km),and large scale(＞2000 km)field.By superimposing these errors with three scales onto the true initial field and comparing the following simulations,the study examines the impact of errors at different scales on the simulated forecast of tropical cyclones,and analyzes the relative contributions of each scale of error to the forecasts.The results indicate that mesoscale errors have the decisive impact on forecasts during the first 10 days,both in terms of track and intensity.Over the subsequent 4 days,the contributions from large-scale and small-scale errors became more significant,with the effects of the three scale errors becoming comparable.In addition,mesoscale errors in the early stage shifted the typhoon track eastward and intensified its strength,while large and small-scale errors caused the typhoon track to shift westward and weakened the typhoon.Analysis reveals that the majority of error information is reflected in mesoscale error,making its role particularly significant in the early stages.Mesoscale errors slightly accelerate the speed of typhoon intensification and significantly slow down the speed of typhoon attenuation,while large-scale and small-scale errors slightly slow down the speed of typhoon intensification and significantly accelerate the speed of typhoon attenuation.Furthermore,the superimposed mesoscale error enhances the initial strength of the cyclone,resulting in an eastward track and later landfall.Therefore,mesoscale error leads to a stronger typhoon intensity.Conversely,large-and small-scale errors drive the track westward,causing an earlier landfall and reducing the typhoon's overall strength.关键词
尺度分解/初始误差/台风路径/台风强度/数值模拟Key words
Scale decomposition/Initial error/Typhoon track/Typhoon intensity/Numerical simulation分类
大气科学引用本文复制引用
周菲凡,叶一苇,张晗,杨雅雯,段晚锁..不同尺度初始误差对2021年台风烟花路径和强度模拟预报的影响[J].大气科学,2025,49(2):550-564,15.基金项目
国家自然科学基金项目42175079,中国科学院国际伙伴计划项目060GJHZ2022061MI,国家重点研发计划项目2017YFC1501601 Funded by National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant 42175079),International Partnership Program of the Chinese Academy of Sciences(Grant 060GJHZ2022061MI),National Key Research and Development Program of China(Grant 2017YFC1501601) （Grant 42175079）
