铁道科学与工程学报2025，Vol.22Issue(5)：2293-2302,10.DOI:10.19713/j.cnki.43-1423/u.T20241277
基于N-K和SNA模型的旧工业建筑施工改造风险耦合分析
Coupling analysis of construction and renovation risk of old industrial buildings based on N-K and SNA model
摘要
Abstract
To eliminate the coupling effects of multiple risk factors on the construction and renovation projects of old industrial buildings,the key risk factors were identified and controlled to prevent accidents in the construction and renovation process of old industrial buildings.The text analysis method was used to analyze 130 reports about safety accidents of old industrial building renovation projects in various regions of China during 2010―2024.Five major risk factors were presented,which could affect the construction safety of old industrial buildings,including management,old industrial buildings,personnel,equipment and materials,and environment.The N-K model and SNA model were integrated to form a new risk coupling analysis framework,which could provide a tool for exploring the risk coupling of old industrial buildings.Firstly,the N-K model was applied to analyze the causes of the old industrial building construction renovation accidents from 2010 to 2024,and the coupling values of each level of risk were calculated.Secondly,the SNA model was used to analyze the centrality and accessibility of risk network factors,and the critical evaluation of each risk factor in the system network was obtained.Finally,the coupling factors of N-K model and SNA model were modified to determine the key risk factors of the old industrial building construction renovation projects.The results show that the risk coupling value is basically proportional to the number of risk factors involved in coupling.The more coupling factors involved,the greater the risk coupling value is,the greater the construction risk is.The unsafe factors of personnel induce strong coupling ability of tube-object-man-device multiple risks.Strong wind,storm,safety management system and lack of professional quality of construction personnel are the key risk factors of construction accidents,and corresponding measures should be taken accordingly.The research results can identify the key risk factors in the reconstruction stage of old industrial buildings,which can provide reference for the risk decision-making of similar reconstruction projects.关键词
建筑改造/风险耦合/N-K模型/SNA模型/安全事故Key words
building renovation/risk coupling/N-K model/SNA model/safety accident分类
建筑与水利引用本文复制引用
骆明真,李红星..基于N-K和SNA模型的旧工业建筑施工改造风险耦合分析[J].铁道科学与工程学报,2025,22(5):2293-2302,10.基金项目
天津市教育工作重点调研课题(JYDY-20241042) （JYDY-20241042）
天津市社科界"十百千"主题调研项目 （）
