摘要
Abstract
In 2021,the United States initiated the Sustainable Aviation Fuel(SAF)Grand Challenge,strategically positioning itself as a global leader in the emerging SAF sector.It has made substantial progress across such four key dimensions as SAF production,technological innovation,market demand,and policy incentives.U.S.SAF production capacity is projected to reach 3.48 billion gallons annually by 2030,representing nearly half of the anticipated global total if all planned projects are put into production on schedule.Global SAF demand by 2030 is estimated to range between 1.8 and 6.2 billion gallons per year,with approximately 1 billion gallons expected to originate from jurisdictions implementing mandatory blending mandates.The Hydroprocessed Esters and Fatty Acids(HEFA)process remains the dominant production technology,followed by Alcohol-to-Jet(AtJ)conversion before 2030,and the Fischer-Tropsch(FT)synthesis and Power-to-Liquid(PtL)technologies would gradually play strategic roles in production portfolios after that.Current SAF production costs remain more than double those of conventional jet fuel and could reach parity with fossil-based alternatives through economies of scale and tax credits.Large-scale SAF commercialization will require coordinated efforts in such three critical areas as scaling production capabilities,ensuring long-term demand visibility,and establishing robust policy frameworks.关键词
美国/可持续航空燃料/供给/需求/燃料成本/技术路线/政策激励Key words
the United States/sustainable aviation fuel(SAF)/supply/demand/fuel cost/technological pathways/policy incentives分类
管理科学
