农业研究与应用2025，Vol.38Issue(2)：192-202,11.DOI:10.20191/j.cnki.2095-0764.2025.02.010
广西农业气象灾害成灾率影响因素及防范策略
Influencing Factors and Prevention Strategies of Agricultural Meteorological Disaster Rate in Guangxi
摘要
Abstract
[Objective]At present,meteorological disasters occur frequently and have a great impact on agricultural production.Because there are many influencing factors,it is beneficial to pre-vent and reduce disasters to find out the important factors affecting the disaster rate.This study aimed to explore the formation mechanism of agricultural meteorological disaster risks in Guangxi and their systematic impact on food production safety,and propose targeted prevention strategies to provide scientific basis for ensuring regional food security.[Method]Based on the panel data of agricultural meteorological disaster rate and the factors influencing grain production capacity in Guangxi from 2010 to 2022,this article used the grey correlation degree method to analyze the fac-tors influencing the meteorological disaster rate and the mechanism of their impact on grain produc-tion from multiple dimensions.[Result]From 2010 to 2022,the crop-sown area in Guangxi exhibit-ed an overall upward trend except for a decrease from 2013 to 2014 and from 2015 to 2016.Agricul-tural labor emerged as the core influencing factor for meteorological disaster rate,followed by agri-cultural irrigation water usage,sown area,fertilizer and pesticide application,agricultural ma-chinery utilization,and agricultural economic foundations.[Conclusion]The loss of agricultural la-bor and skill deficiencies directly undermine disaster response capabilities,while declining sown ar-eas amplify the negative impacts of the disasters on per-unit land productivity.The allocation effi-ciency of irrigation water,the rational use of chemical fertilizers and pesticides,the adaptability of agricultural machinery and equipment,and the resilience level of agricultural economic foundation all affected the meteorological disaster rates through different paths.[Strategic Suggestions]First,it is necessary to strengthen the education in disaster prevention and mitigation by building a diversi-fied agricultural personnel training system and improving the quality of agricultural workers.Sec-ond,high-standard farmland and irrigation infrastructure should be upgraded to improve disaster resistance.Third,cultivated land protection policies should be enforced and planting structures should be optimized to stabilize grain-sown areas.Fourth,intelligent disaster monitoring systems should be developed and multi-departmental emergency coordination mechanisms should be refined.Fifth,fiscal support should be strengthened to improve agricultural insurance and post-disaster recovery systems.Coordinated implementation of these strategies will not only mitigate direct mete-orological shocks to grain production but also enhance agricultural system adaptability and resi-lience,fostering sustainable agricultural development in Guangxi and providing a regional practice reference for ensuring national food security.关键词
农业气象灾害/影响因素/粮食生产/灰色关联度/广西Key words
Agricultural meteorological disasters/influencing factor/grain production/grey correlation degree/Guangxi分类
植物保护学引用本文复制引用
姜梦涵,章昌平..广西农业气象灾害成灾率影响因素及防范策略[J].农业研究与应用,2025,38(2):192-202,11.基金项目
教育部人文社会科学研究项目(20YJC850018). （20YJC850018）
