净水技术2025，Vol.44Issue(5)：44-56,13.DOI:10.15890/j.cnki.jsjs.2025.05.006
基于二次博弈云模型的石羊河流域水质评价及预测分析
Water Quality Evaluation and Prediction Analysis of Shiyang River Basin Based on Secondary Game Cloud Model
摘要
Abstract
[Objective]To verify the applicability of the secondary game cloud model method in Shiyang River Basin,based on in-depth analysis of water quality changes in Shiyang River Basin from 2018 to 2022,the main pollution factors of 8 monitoring sections are identified,and the main water quality indices of severely polluted sections are predicted in short term in order to provide decision basis for subsequent water quality research and water environment management in Shiyang River Basin.[Methods]Secondary game cloud model and single factor evaluation method were combined to analyze 8 main indices of W1～W8 water quality detection section in Shiyang River Basin,and the grey GM(1,1)prediction model was used to predict the main pollutant indices of heavily polluted section Result Resluts could be concluded as follows:(1)The upstream water quality of Shiyang River Basin remained good from 2018 to 2022,and the pollution was mainly concentrated in the middle and lower reaches near Wuwei City.Among the 8 selected sections,the W4 and W5 monitoring sections had more serious water pollution.The main pollutant indices were ammonia nitrogen,TP,COD and BOD5;(2)Through the grey GM(1,1)model prediction,ammonia nitrogen,COD and BOD5 concentrations of the W5 monitoring section in 2027 could meet the water quality requirements of class Ⅲ,class Ⅳ and class Ⅰ,respectively.The concentrations of ammonia nitrogen,COD and TP of W4 monitoring section could meet the water quality requirements of class Ⅳ,class Ⅳ and class Ⅱ,respectively.[Conclusion]From 2018 to 2022,the water quality of Shiyang River Basin improves year by year,and the pollution is mainly agricultural pollution.TP,dissolved oxygen,ammonia nitrogen,and sulfide are dominated in water quality evaluation of study area.The improved secondary game cloud model and grey GM(1,1)prediction model have good feasibility and applicability in Shiyang River Basin,and the evaluation result are in line with the reality.关键词
石羊河流域/水质评价/二次博弈云模型/单因子评价法/灰色预测Key words
Shiyang River Basin/water quality evaluation/secondary game cloud model/single-factor evaluation method/gray prediction分类
资源环境引用本文复制引用
樊亚仑,胡广录,白元儒,陶虎,李昊辰,杨鹏华..基于二次博弈云模型的石羊河流域水质评价及预测分析[J].净水技术,2025,44(5):44-56,13.基金项目
国家自然科学基金项目:人为干扰对沙漠绿洲过渡带斑块状植被格局稳定性及其防风固沙功能的影响(41561102) （41561102）
人为干扰下沙漠绿洲过渡带斑块状植被格局动态对其土壤水文特性的影响(41867074) （41867074）
甘肃省水利厅水资源费预算项目(甘水建管发[2019]255号) （甘水建管发[2019]255号）
干旱区水资源开发利用生态环境保护需求及对策研究(3051226) （3051226）
