河海大学学报（自然科学版）2025，Vol.53Issue(3)：1-7,7.DOI:10.3876/j.issn.1000-1980.2025.03.001
富春江水库流域径流变化及其量化归因分析
Analysis of runoff evolution in Fuchunjiang Reservoir Basin and its quantitative attribution
摘要
Abstract
To clarify the main driving factors of runoff evolution in the Fuchunjiang Reservoir Basin,the trend and mutation of annual runoff depth,precipitation,and potential evapotranspiration from 1970 to 2022 in the basin were analyzed.The contributions of precipitation,potential evapotranspiration,and underlying surface conditions to runoff evolution were quantified by using the Budyko hypothesis attribution method.The results indicate that both precipitation and runoff depth exhibit a non-significant upward trend,while potential evapotranspiration shows a significant increase.The mutation year for runoff depth is identified as 2012.Increased runoff depth is mainly induced by rising precipitation and changing underlying surface parameters caused by the expansion of impermeable area and the reduction of forest land area,with contribution rates of 51.61％and 52.55％,respectively.The reduction in runoff depth is caused by the increase in potential evapotranspiration,with a contribution rate of 4.16％.关键词
径流变化/Budyko假设归因法/量化归因分析/富春江水库流域Key words
runoff change/Budyko hypothesis attribution method/quantitative attribution analysis/Fuchunjiang Reservoir Basin分类
天文与地球科学引用本文复制引用
司伟,黄思琦,王培霞,张永康,张健..富春江水库流域径流变化及其量化归因分析[J].河海大学学报（自然科学版）,2025,53(3):1-7,7.基金项目
中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金资助项目(B230201030) （B230201030）
江西省"科技+水利"联合计划项目(2022KSG01006) （2022KSG01006）
