河海大学学报（自然科学版）2025，Vol.53Issue(3)：8-14,7.DOI:10.3876/j.issn.1000-1980.2025.03.002
不同误差校正方法在衢江流域洪水预报中的应用对比
Application comparison of different error correction methods in flood forecasting in Qujiang River watershed
摘要
Abstract
Xin'anjiang model was used to simulate the flood process of Qujiang River watershed of Qiantang River.The effectiveness of six real-time correction methods for correcting flood forecasting results in the study area was evaluated based on indexes such as Nash efficiency coefficient(NSE),relative error of flood peak(RE),and peak time error(ΔT).These methods included real-time correction method,real-time correction method by feedback simulation,autoregressive(AR)method,random forest(RF),k-nearest neighbor algorithm(KNN),and artificial neural network(ANN).The results show that all six correction methods can reduce RE,with RF being the best,followed by the real-time correction method and the method by feedback simulation.In terms of NSE,ANN and AR methods perform well,especially when the starting forecast time is far from the flood peak;ANN shows a better performance.In terms of peak time,RF has the best correction performance,followed by ANN.Overall,ANN shows the best performance,which can improve the accuracy of flood forecasting to a certain extent.关键词
洪水预报/实时校正/误差自回归/反馈模拟实时校正法/机器学习/新安江模型/衢江流域Key words
flood forecasting/real-time correction/autoregressive method/real-time correction method by feedback simulation/machine learning/Xin'anjiang model/Qujiang River watershed分类
天文与地球科学引用本文复制引用
杨雨蒙,石朋,瞿思敏,吴洪石,孙逸群,樊鑫洋..不同误差校正方法在衢江流域洪水预报中的应用对比[J].河海大学学报（自然科学版）,2025,53(3):8-14,7.基金项目
国家自然科学基金项目(52179011) （52179011）
