河海大学学报（自然科学版）2025，Vol.53Issue(3)：22-29,8.DOI:10.3876/j.issn.1000-1980.2025.03.004
基于Budyko理论的高寒山区流域径流演变归因分析
Attribution analysis of runoff evolution in cold alpine catchment based on Budyko theory
摘要
Abstract
To further understand the mechanism of runoff evolution in cold alpine catchment under climate changes,the evolution characteristics of hydro-meteorological elements in the Yangbajain Catchment from 1982 to 2013 were systematically analyzed.By incorporating glacier mass balance and groundwater storage changes into the Budyko attribution analysis equation,the contributions made by changes in each factor to runoff evolution in the catchment were assessed.The results show that precipitation,average temperature,potential evapotranspiration,runoff amount,and groundwater storage in the Yangbajain Catchment show an upward trend from 1982 to 2013,with increasing rates of 3.0 mm/a,0.02℃/a(p＜0.05),0.53 mm/a,1.99 mm/a(p＜0.05),and 2.18 mm/a(p＜0.05),respectively.As the climate gets warm and humid,the sensitivity of runoff evolution in the catchment to changes in the hydro-meteorological elements has increased.The contribution rates of precipitation,potential evapotranspiration,underlying surface of non-glacial areas,glacier mass balance,and groundwater storage changes to runoff changes are 189％,-2.99％,-78.3％,20.9％,and-28.7％,respectively.Improvement in vegetation growth and degradation of frozen soil are important factors causing changes in the underlying surface in the catchment,with contribution rates to runoff changes of-27.9％and-50.4％,respectively.关键词
Budyko理论/气候变化/径流演变/归因分析/高寒山区流域Key words
Budyko theory/climate change/runoff evolution/attribution analysis/cold alpine catchment分类
天文与地球科学引用本文复制引用
郭珈源,孙旭杨,刘金涛,边巴拉姆,王甲荣,王淑红..基于Budyko理论的高寒山区流域径流演变归因分析[J].河海大学学报（自然科学版）,2025,53(3):22-29,8.基金项目
第二次青藏高原综合科学考察研究项目(2019QZ-KK0207) （2019QZ-KK0207）
国家自然科学基金项目(92047301) （92047301）
