农业资源与环境学报2025，Vol.42Issue(3)：761-772,12.DOI:10.13254/j.jare.2024.0257
农村地区可再生能源潜力分析及发展路径研究
Analysis of renewable energy potential and development path in rural areas:a case study of Guangdong Province
摘要
Abstract
The organic combination of rural revitalization and the"dual carbon"goal is a necessary path for China's rural modernization to develop towards green and high-quality development.This study took Guangdong Province as an example and combined geographic information systems to establish a comprehensive evaluation model for renewable energy resource assessment,energy consumption,and carbon emission prediction.The abundance and self-sufficiency rate of renewable energy in rural areas of 21 cities were analyzed,in order to provide scientific support for the planning of low-carbon development in rural areas of Guangdong Province.The results showed that the rural areas of the province could generate 41 540 GWh of electricity from biomass and 37 225 GWh of electricity from solar energy,and had obvious geographical distribution characteristics.Among them,the sectors composed of cities such as Zhaoqing and Qingyuan had high development potential in both biomass and solar resources.Based on the long-term scenario prediction of energy consumption,the energy consumption in rural areas of Guangdong Province would reach its peak in 2031 under the baseline scenario,reaching 39.21 million tce.The energy self-sufficiency rates of Jieyang City,Zhaoqing City,and Shaoguan City all exceeded 100%,and renewable energy electricity self-sufficiency could be achieved in the future.However,the energy self-sufficiency rates in rural areas of the Pearl River Delta were relatively low(all below 35%),indicating a high degree of external dependence.Based on the above analysis,this study proposes the following development suggestions:according to the resource and environmental endowments of each region and the actual economic and social development,rural biomass and solar power generation plans should be formulated according to local conditions,as well as energy-saving and carbon reduction measures,in order to promote the process of carbon peaking in an orderly manner.关键词
可再生能源丰裕度/能源自给率/农村低碳发展/广东省Key words
abundance of renewable energy/energy self-sufficiency rate/low carbon development in rural areas/Guangdong Province分类
环境科学引用本文复制引用
肖子毅,成贝贝,刘晓俞,任松彦,陶海..农村地区可再生能源潜力分析及发展路径研究[J].农业资源与环境学报,2025,42(3):761-772,12.基金项目
中国科学院战略性先导科技专项(XDA29010500) Chinese Academy of Sciences Strategic Leading Science and Technology Project(XDA29010500) （XDA29010500）
