情报杂志2025，Vol.44Issue(6)：73-80,93,9.DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1002-1965.2025.06.010
基于证据推理混合理论的情报欺骗识别研究
Study on Intelligence Deception Detection Based on the Bex's Hybrid Theory
摘要
Abstract
[Research purpose]Exploring how to transplant the Bex's hybrid theory into the field of intelligence deception detection and helping intelligence analysts to form a standardized and orderly analysis and thinking path,so as to improve the effectiveness of intelligence deception detection.[Research method]In accordance with the research framework of"theory introduction-transplantation application-value evaluation and analysis",we employ methods of theoretical transplantation and case analysis,and then explain the transplant feasibil-ity of the Bex's hybrid theory,and analyze the specific construction method,action mechanism,value and limitation of the intelligence de-ception detection process.[Research result/conclusion]It is feasible to apply the Bex's hybrid theory to intelligence deception detection.The deception detection process based on the theory consists of three stages:evidence sorting and selection,story and argument schema construction,and story evaluation and comparison,which carries out truth-like assessment on the schema from two dimensions of integrity and detail,so as to identify intelligence deception.Although the process has some limitations in the aspects of team ability requirements and conclusion time determination,it can make intelligence deception detection work more orderly and scientific.关键词
情报欺骗/欺骗识别/情报分析/反欺骗/证据推理/证据推理混合理论Key words
intelligence deception/deception detection/intelligence analysis/counterdeception/evidential reasoning/Bex's hybrid theory引用本文复制引用
朱鹏锦,马晓娟..基于证据推理混合理论的情报欺骗识别研究[J].情报杂志,2025,44(6):73-80,93,9.基金项目
国家社会科学基金军事学重点项目"'灰色地带'冲突预警情报一体化工作模式研究"(编号:2022-SKJJ-B-106). （编号:2022-SKJJ-B-106）
