热带农业科学2025，Vol.45Issue(4)：44-54,11.DOI:10.12008/j.issn.1009-2196.2025.04.007
鄂西山区烟草物候特征及预测分析
Phenological Characteristics and Predictive Analysis of Tobacco in the Western Hubei Mountainous Region
摘要
Abstract
Using data from 25 tobacco phenological observation stations across three quasi-vertical profiles in the western Hubei mountainous region during 2021,along with corrected 1 km×1 km high-resolution China Meteorological Administration Real-time Analysis System(CRAAS)products,this study reveals the altitudinal variation characteristics of tobacco growth stages and their durations.Through correlation analysis,we investigated the influence of geographical and climate conditions on the durations of the five tobacco growth stages.I Prediction models for growth stage durations were established via multi-ple linear regression and adaptive linear neural network models based on altitude and climatic factors,with validation con-ducted with 2022 observation data.The results indicate that(1)the field growth period of tobacco in western Hubei Province spans from transplanting(May 7)to harvest completion(September 9),with average dates for rosette formation,budding,and initial harvesting occurring on June 10,July 4,and July 22,respectively.All growth stages showed delayed occurrence with increasing altitude,particularly in northwestern Hubei where the altitudinal gradient was most pronounced.This delay gradient progressively increased during later growth stages.(2)The average field growth duration ranged from 112 d(southwestern Hubei)to 135 d(Three Gorges region),with the pre-maturation stage being the shortest(14-22 d)and the late-maturation stage being the longest(37-55 d).The altitudinal gradient of growth stage durations generally increased during later phenological phases,with positive values except for negative gradients in the root extension stage in the southwestern Hubei and Three Gorges regions.(3)Significant correlations were detected between tobacco growth stage duration and the mean temperature,active accumulated temperature,and altitude in the western Hubei mountains.Climatic conditions during the late-maturation stage had a greater influence on tobacco development.The mean temperatures during all growth stages de-creased with the increasing altitude,whereas the active accumulated temperatures consistently exceeded 2 000℃,meeting the thermal requirements for tobacco growth.(4)Modeling and backtesting results for five growth stage durations demonstrated the superior prediction accuracy of the adaptive linear neural network model.This study provided technical support for to-bacco cultivation zoning and agricultural scheduling.关键词
物候/生育期/生育期日数/鄂西山区/预测/自适应线性神经网络模型Key words
phenology/growth stage/growth stage duration/western Hubei mountainous region/prediction/adaptive neural network model分类
农业科技引用本文复制引用
鞠英芹,陈正洪,马德栗,曾琦,谭静,祝传栋..鄂西山区烟草物候特征及预测分析[J].热带农业科学,2025,45(4):44-54,11.基金项目
中国烟草总公司湖北省公司重点科技项目(No.027Y2021-020,No.027Y2022-006). （No.027Y2021-020,No.027Y2022-006）
