人民珠江2025，Vol.46Issue(5)：10-20,11.DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1001-9235.2025.05.002
西流松花江流域径流演变规律与归因分析研究
Runoff Evolution Patterns and Attribution Analysis in Xiliu Songhua River Basin
摘要
Abstract
The Xiliu Songhua River Basin in northeast China was selected as the research object to quantitatively analyze the driving mechanism of climate change and human activities on runoff evolution under the background of global warming and reveal the evolution law of water cycle in cold regions and its eco-hydrological effects.A precipitation phase discrimination model was constructed based on the wet-bulb temperature threshold method,and the Budyko equation was improved by introducing the snowfall ratio.Combined with multi-source methods such as spatial interpolation of meteorological data,Pettitt mutation test,Mann-Kendall trend test,and land use transfer matrix,the synergistic effect of climate factors and underlying surface parameters was systematically evaluated.The annual runoff at Fuyu Station and Jilin Station increased significantly at a rate of 0.12 mm/a and 1.77 mm/a,respectively.The annual average precipitation and annual average snowfall ratio in the basin showed a continuous increasing trend,while the annual average potential evapotranspiration showed a continuous decreasing trend.In terms of spatial distribution,the annual average precipitation and annual average snowfall ratio in the basin showed a trend of less in the north and more in the south,while the annual average potential evapotranspiration showed a pattern of more in the north and less in the south.The contribution rate of precipitation humidification to runoff change reached 57.24%～66.89%,and the contribution rate of human activities was only 4.39%～7.52%.The proposed SR-Budyko coupling framework effectively solved the defects of traditional models in rain and snow phase identification and freeze-thaw energy and water exchange characterization and provided a new theoretical tool for the optimization of water resources systems in cold regions,spring flood disaster prevention and control,and the protection of ecological barriers in northeast China.It has important practical guiding value for water security decision-making in climate change-sensitive areas.关键词
降水类型/Budyko框架/径流变化/气候变化/西流松花江/寒区Key words
precipitation type/Budyko framework/runoff change/climate change/Xiliu Songhua River/Cold regions分类
水利科学引用本文复制引用
燕玉亮,丁红,张佳悦,高宇..西流松花江流域径流演变规律与归因分析研究[J].人民珠江,2025,46(5):10-20,11.基金项目
黑龙江省重点研发计划指导类项目(GZ20220170) （GZ20220170）
