人民珠江2025，Vol.46Issue(5)：30-40,11.DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1001-9235.2025.05.004
挠力河流域极端土地利用变化与降雨类型对洪水过程的影响
Effects of Extreme Land Use Changes and Rainfall Types on Flood Process in Naoli River Basin
摘要
Abstract
As the core grain-producing area of the Sanjiang Plain,the Naoli River Basin has undergone significant changes in land use structure over the past 40 years due to the implementation of agricultural restructuring and wetland restoration projects.Based on the characterization of historical rainfall changes in the Naoli River Basin,this paper establishes extreme land use scenarios and different rainfall scenarios and simulates and analyzes the response of flood processes in different return periods using the HEC-HMS model.The results are as follows.① The multi-year average precipitation in the Naoli River Basin is 578.51 mm,with annual precipitation at each rainfall station showing a significant increasing trend.② The HEC-HMS model demonstrates good simulation performance,with Nash values for all flood events during the calibration and validation periods over 0.85.③ In the paddy field expansion scenario,the average change rates of peak flood flow and runoff depth are 61.45%and 61.05%,respectively,and the peak time is advanced by an average of 1.75 hours.In the dryland or wetland restoration scenarios,both peak flood flow and runoff depth are significantly reduced,with peak flood flow decreasing by 12.76%and 50.48%,respectively.The reduction effect of the wetland is more significant.Floods with shorter return periods are more sensitive to land use changes.④ With the rainfall peak time delayed by 24 hours and the flood peak time postponed by 20 hours on average,the average growth rates of peak flood flow and runoff depth are 14.78%and 10.26%,respectively.The flood response under rainfall type I is more sensitive.When the rainfall center changes from the upstream area to the downstream area,the average change rates of the peak flood flow and runoff depth are-13.03%and-14.33%respectively,and the peak time is advanced by an average of 7.33 hours.The results can provide a scientific basis for water resource management and land use planning in the basin.关键词
极端土地利用变化/雨型/降雨中心位置/洪水过程/HEC-HMS模型Key words
extreme land use change/rainfall type/rainfall center location/flood process/HEC-HMS model分类
建筑与水利引用本文复制引用
马瑞雪,刘建卫,逄晓腾..挠力河流域极端土地利用变化与降雨类型对洪水过程的影响[J].人民珠江,2025,46(5):30-40,11.基金项目
国家自然科学基金青年基金项目(52309079) （52309079）
