人民珠江2025，Vol.46Issue(5)：77-84,8.DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1001-9235.2025.05.008
基于决策树分类-多元线性回归的水电站非弃水期下游水位计算方法
Calculation Method of Downstream Water Level in Non-Spilling Periods of Hydropower Stations Based on Decision Tree Classification and Multiple Linear Regression
摘要
Abstract
Accurate calculation of downstream water level during non-spilling periods is crucial for the safe operation of hydropower stations.Inaccurate water level calculations can lead to frequent modifications of power generation plans,seriously affecting the safe,stable,and efficient operation of hydropower stations.Currently,the significant errors in calculating downstream water level during non-spilling periods urgently need to be addressed.A multiple linear regression calculation method based on decision tree classification is proposed.This method first employs the classification and regression tree(CART)algorithm,using long-series measured data from hydropower stations to establish decision tree classification rules and classify data of different operation working conditions.An independent multiple linear regression method is established for the numerical fitting of every data classification,which avoids the problem that it is hard for a single model to describe the overall data characteristics.When the method is applied to calculate downstream water level during non-spilling periods at the Three Gorges Hydropower Station,the results show that the calculated downstream water level are closer to the actual downstream water level process compared to the function fitting method,which improves the calculation accuracy of downstream water level.The research findings can accurately calculate downstream water level fluctuations,reduce the impact of downstream water level on the operating head,and provide technical support for improving the refined scheduling level of hydropower stations.关键词
决策树/数据挖掘/下游水位/三峡水电站Key words
decision tree/data mining/downstream water level/Three Gorges Hydropower Station分类
水利科学引用本文复制引用
李英海,何良哲,张海荣,聂盼盼,覃晖,杨晴宇,郭家力..基于决策树分类-多元线性回归的水电站非弃水期下游水位计算方法[J].人民珠江,2025,46(5):77-84,8.基金项目
数字流域科学与技术湖北省重点实验室开放基金(耦合中长期径流预测的梯级水电站多目标博弈调度研究) （耦合中长期径流预测的梯级水电站多目标博弈调度研究）
国家自然科学基金项目(52179018) （52179018）
