人民珠江2025，Vol.46Issue(5)：121-130,10.DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1001-9235.2025.05.012
水库滑坡堆积体变形与诱发因素的时间序列分析
Time-Series Analysis of Deformation and Induced Factors of Reservoir Landslide Deposits
摘要
Abstract
The major hydropower projects are significantly influenced by triggering factors such as heavy rainfall and reservoir water level fluctuations,which affect the deformation and stability of landslide deposits on reservoir banks.These factors exhibit long-term spatiotemporal evolution characteristics,making the risk management and prevention of reservoir bank landslide disasters extremely challenging.To elucidate the influence mechanisms of heavy rainfall,reservoir water levels,and groundwater level changes on the deformation evolution of landslide deposits in reservoir areas,this paper selected the Donglingxin landslide deposit in the Sanbanxi Hydropower Station on the Qingshui River as the research subject.Based on time-series monitoring data of landslide deposit deformation,rainfall,reservoir water levels,groundwater levels,and other trigging factors,an autoregressive model was employed to conduct dynamic prediction research on the deformation of the Donglingxin landslide deposit.The single-factor autoregressive time-series model was extended to a multi-factor vector autoregressive model,enabling impulse response analysis of the time-series relationship between reservoir landslide deposit deformation and triggering factors.The research results indicate that monthly rainfall has a greater impact on the displacement of the Donglingxin landslide deposit compared to groundwater and reservoir water levels,and it exhibits a strong lag effect.However,over time,the influence gradually diminishes,and the displacement changes tend to stabilize.The findings provide a theoretical basis and scientific reference for the prevention,control,monitoring,and early warning of reservoir landslides.关键词
水库滑坡堆积体/自回归模型/月降雨量/监测数据分析/滑坡诱发因素Key words
reservoir landslide deposit/autoregressive model/monthly rainfall/monitoring data analysis/landslide trigging factor分类
水利科学引用本文复制引用
唐露云,王如宾..水库滑坡堆积体变形与诱发因素的时间序列分析[J].人民珠江,2025,46(5):121-130,10.基金项目
国家自然科学基金重点项目(51939004) （51939004）
